Replies to post #349766 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Vandalayind]

Inventory issue is a farse. Demand driven up by ibuyers. Issue is cost.

A builder will build you anything you want today if you have the money.

Iventory issue is really affordability issue. Like as in prices are too high.

Stay tuned.

Real estate pricing first time home buyers out of the market. Everyone else already owns a house. If they want to.

Buyer fatigue coming.



It's inevitable.

[Vandalayind]

First time home buyers ARE the damand. They are the market share "to be aquired".

Housing market kicking the same houses back and forth between same buyers is high demand?

Alternative...owning a house will forever be out of reach for many.

I sure hope the FED doesn't choose that one.

[Vandalayind]

This same thing already happened.

Even though everyone tells you it isn't like 08...it really is.

The "protection" should habe been control of housing costs.

They can't create demand for overpriced housing now. I mean I guess an even bigger jump in minimum wage might help people afford trailers.

[Vandalayind]

This could be the worst market for a first-time homebuyer, experts say
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/this-could-be-the-worst-market-for-a-first-time-homebuyer-experts-say.html

[Vandalayind]

Worst ever.

As in there are actually no new first time home buyers. As in there really isn't more demand.

Do you remember how they stimulated housing after 08?

Giving massive incentives to FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS...in an effort to obviously INCREASE DEMAND.

[Vandalayind]

I've been here before while in construction.

Affordability forces builders to abandon forst time home buyers and seek out an ever shrinking "high end market". In reality it's the same house over priced.

It can't last.

[Vandalayind]

In order for number of units sold/number of buyers in the market to stay Net Nuetral. For ever first time buyer eliminated a new "high end buyer" has to be created.

I assume given the national outrage over inflation this is not the case.

Someone will get stuck holding the real estate bag when interst rates go up and student loans kick back in.

IMO

[Vandalayind]

PPI increase just came in rippin hot. Which means consumer prices going up...again.

FED and CB's everywhere got a big problem.

PPI now slivers below 10%. Expect CPI to get there.

In the 70's 11% was the point price controls we enacted.

It's over for assets. All anyone will ever yalk about for a year is how overproced they are and what someone is going to do about it.

This includes houses.