Gap and crap again.
Or is it. One thing I noticed in the last rally is every up day started with a gap, then a crap, then a rally to the end of the day. Many viewed the gap and crap, but I started believing this was a gap, backfill, rally. Never heard about it from anyone, but it left no gaps to fill. It was one of the reasons I thought the NAZ declining wedge would bear out.
The current trend has been a downward channel for the past 15 days. That's the longest down channel since the beginning of the year. The trend is your friend, but it can't last forever. We need some sort of rally to satisfy the oversold conditions. As a matter of fact, the ADX reached pivot conditions at the end of the day yesterday.
After that, who knows. That's what I meant by my "fire" comment yesterday. If a relief rally does catch fire, there is a lot of positive data that can be used to mark it all up. If there is no fire, then we probably trend down. I measure fire as volume.
Important to me is 10,200. The DOW must close above this today, or I am very pessimistic short term. But, under the gun as I know that the trend is long in the tooth.
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