this isn't like... one of those things..
these are utility style companies with regulated rates of return in a relatively fixed and stable market.
there isn't much luck involved. this is a restructuring, luck cuts both ways for preferred shareholders.
on one hand, biden kicks the can until lamberth rules that preferred are owed 150% of par and preferred get paid what they are legally owed.
on the other hand, some sort of haircut to what they should have been paid all along --- who knows how big the haircut is going to be, or if it is going to be big enough to wipe common, i hope not --- for your sake..and the sake of all the other gentle people who i have met along the way who own common and refuse to increase their security even though this is a restructuring.
anyway, there are two best cases for me.
1. calhoun gets nominated by end of this year for fhfa director and we are off to the races and it goes fast
2. nothing happens until preferred win major lawsuits and the stakes go up for settlement terms.
somewhere in between is like a long delay where things just get more wishy washy.. anyway
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