Hi gg . No longer have a position in AUPH . I had bt into it in Sept because I thought they would find a market in at least the severe LN patients . As you know my wife is a renal PA so interacts with the MD's prescribing for LN ( Lupus Nephritis ) . Their comments were that altho they saw benefit vs SOC the PA ( prior authorization requests ) would mean that patients had to fail SOC before insurers would agree to pay the roughly $85,000 a yr cost of Voclosporin.
Then we had the rumored BMY interest reported by Bloomberg ...which took the stock to recent highs.
The case for Voclosporin still holds for severe LN. Those with severe LN are at high risk pf proceeding the ESRD ( dialysis ) which now cost over $120,000 a yr per patient and cannot be denied .
My guess is that theres around 13,000 severe LN patients in the US ...so if all of them were on Voc ...Co says $65,000 a yr net to them = $845m a yr peak in US .
Remember this drug has a black box warning so sales may never get that high
So 5 times peak sale as a buy out price = $4.2B and Co now has market cap of $3.7B IF the deal goes thru is my guess.
We still await the final data from A-2 on eGFR . If that data shows improvement in eGFR then BO price would definitely be higher .
Meanwhile we now have new data from KZR ...final P2 data Q2 2022...market cap of $686m
Obviously this is early data and if all goes well the Co is at best 3 yrs behind AUPH re FDA approval ...but their data looks good SO FAR .
One key pt with their drug is that it looks like it can be used without the need for steroids .
Patients hate the steroids ...and long term use predisposes the patient to infections .....so even if efficacy is at best similar to Voclosporin ..patients may put up with the weekly sub Q injection just so they can get of the steroids.
Co will raise funds to run a P3 ...if final P2 data holds up.
So I sold AUPH and bt KZR after reviewing their data . I'm not super negative on AUPH ...just dont think BMY will pay what many are thinking .
Above is just my non professional opinion ...everyone should do their own DD.
I've been wrong before ( in pain today on my UPST position ...where I definitely overstayed ) so Caveat Emptor .
Suggest you chk out CYTK ...
Kiwi
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
