I know this is probably impossible for you but can you show me the math anywhere where the death rate is higher from people getting the jab and lower from people not getting the jab. I'll make it easy - there is no state where that is happening. ZIP Nada Zilch
Compared with the unvaccinated, fully vaccinated people overall had a much lower chance of testing positive for the virus or dying from it, even through the summer’s Delta surge and the relaxation of pandemic restrictions in many parts of the country.
But the data indicates that immunity against infection may be slowly waning for vaccinated people, even as the vaccines continue to be strongly protective against severe illness and death.
“The No. 1 take-home message is that these vaccines are still working,” said Dr. David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “If you saw these data for any disease other than Covid, what everyone’s eyes would be drawn to is the difference between the unvaccinated and fully vaccinated lines.”
The data shows notable differences in breakthrough death rates by age and slight differences in both case and death rates by vaccine brand, trends that experts say are important to consider as tens of millions of Americans weigh whether to get a booster shot.
The data, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is based on health department records from 14 states and two cities. A second dashboard reveals similar trends for hospitalized patients with and without vaccination.
All vaccinated age groups saw similar rates of breakthrough infection, and they all had much lower rates of infection and death compared with their unvaccinated peers.
While every age group had similar rates of breakthrough cases, death rates varied more drastically by age. Unvaccinated seniors were the most likely to die from Covid of any group. Still, vaccinated people 80 and older had higher death rates than unvaccinated people under 50.
“Age is our top risk factor for vaccine breakthrough deaths,” said Theresa Sokol, the state epidemiologist in Louisiana, one of the jurisdictions that contributed to the C.D.C. data.
Breakthrough deaths among seniors may be because of immunosenescence, or the weakening of the immune system in older people, said Heather Scobie, an epidemiologist at the C.D.C. who helps lead the team that produced the new data.
“They don’t usually form as robust a response to vaccination,” added Dr. Scobie. “Hopefully the booster dose for ages 65 years and older will address that issue.”
The federal data also makes it clear that all three brands of vaccine administered in the United States substantially reduced rates of cases and deaths. But among those vaccinated, Johnson & Johnson recipients had slightly higher rates of breakthrough cases and related deaths. And Pfizer-BioNTech recipients had slightly higher rates than those who got Moderna.
The C.D.C. data so far runs through early September and captures only the crest of the Delta wave. But data from states like New York and California shows similar patterns through September and October. That suggests that the vaccines, despite some slight differences among the brands, are still working to protect against the most severe outcomes.
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