You have to be careful with all the assumptions and linkages between markets ... creating a scenario of gloom and doom, and then positioning your portfolio for the worst possible outcome is a quick path to poverty.
Since March of 2003 the Second Gulf War has been absorbing about a 1-billion US dollars per week-- yet that's when the markets bottomed out and began this terrific bull run-- not only that, we're going onto the fifth year with the nice folks at the Stock Traders Almanac pronouncing "January Barometer a positive reading for 2007. The full-month January Barometer has a brilliant 13 and 1 record in Pre-Election years. This positive reading reinforces our 2007 forecast for the year of 10-15% gains to the highs of 2007."
So is it safe to assume that the only thing that can derail this bull-market is peace in the Middle-East...???
-- don't get causality confused with casualty.
I will agree is that precious metals and oil/gas are the only two commodities (that I follow) that should be played from the long side ... everything else, including uranium is consolidating.
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