Replies to post #9623 on MDA - Market Direction Analysis (MDA)

[LG]

hk2: I am not getting complacent, not with whats occurred over the last few days. The QQQ needs to stay below 35.45 with this bounce, IMO.

Finger on the cover trigger...gg

EDIT: If the NDX moves below its Fri RSL, this could get even more interesting.

Regards,
LG

[halfcab]

hk2,

I've been watching that, too, but I also just noticed the nas tick jump into the 400-500 range, and all the index could do was add about 3 pts.

[augieboo]

Looks like NDX may be painting a double top, and COMP may even do the same, (rather than the H&S I've been expecting).

[Ace Hanlon]

Surging bond yields aborting the stock rally as expected.

Interest rates will be the achilles heel of this bull IMHO. Namely the bull is hugely dependent on extraordinarily low rates which simply cannot continue much longer. Rates MUCH lower than they were the last time the stock averages traded at current levels.

[augieboo]

Custom Charts -- New New Highs say a top of some sort is approaching quickly -- at least I'm pretty sure they do.

Comments?

[Namiar]

HK2 and others,

Re: TNX

I would like to know your opinions about the effect TNX has on the equities markets.

1) As short term traders, what rules of thumb are there regarding the movement of TNX pertaining to how you manage your ST positions??

2) Do you feel that there are any direct correlations between TNX moves and stock market movement, one that can be statistically played?? I would suspect probably not. The stock market has few if any direct stimulus-response correlations that can be banked upon. If it were simple, than anyone could do it . .

3) I am more interested in indirect correlation. Lets say the markets happened to be nicely oversold or overbought. Do you suspect then that some TNX movement outside of the statistical norm might serve to catalyze an equities reversal???