Replies to post #380931 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[Zorax]

Related to your post but not in the topic of....

First, from this embedded link in your post, orban appears to have, what looks like cancer or melanoma on that visible inside ear.

But while zooming in to make my 'diagnosis', I noticed what seems to be a weird water mark inside of his right eyebrow, looking at pic that would be the left brow. One has to zoom in to see the shadow image, usually how water marks can look like. Look for the target looking circle mid brow.
Strange. It's an overlay that appears no where else in the frame.

Many photographers insert water marks and copyright pixels on internet digitals.

[fuagf]

Inside the Hungarian campaign to beat Viktor Orbán

"It happened there: how democracy died in Hungary
"TUCKER CARLSON IS JOINING THE RIGHT-WING PARADE TO “ILLIBERAL” HUNGARY""

Disparate alliance faces formidable obstacles to unseat veteran PM.


Prime Minister Viktor Orbán | Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images

By Lili Bayer
July 26, 2021 4:00 am

BUDAPEST — For Hungary’s opposition, next year’s election is literally make-or-break.

Polls suggest a disparate alliance of six parties has a real shot at ending the rule of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the champion of “illiberal democracy,” who has been in power since 2010.

But the highly diverse nature of the alliance — from liberal millennials to small-town conservatives — is a double-edged sword.

When it comes to electoral math, only a broad opposition bloc can appeal to enough voters to take on Orbán. But having such a broad coalition means tensions and rivalries are never far from the surface.

The parliamentary election, expected next spring, is high-stakes for Europe as well as Hungary.

If Orbán wins another term, the highly strained relationship between Budapest and the EU mainstream will be tested even further. Orbán has already parted ways with the European People’s Party center-right alliance. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte even suggested .. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-confront-viktor-orban-over-anti-lgbt-bill-hungary-rights/ .. last month that it might be time for Hungary to leave the EU itself.

IMAGE - HUNGARY NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls .. https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/ .

A defeat for Orbán and his nationalist Fidesz party would present the possibility of a reset in relations with the EU — although how that would unfold is highly uncertain, given the wide range of views within the opposition alliance.

“The anti-Orbán opposition in Hungary is a product of despair,” said philosopher Gáspár M. Tamás, a Communist-era dissident who later served as a member of Hungary’s parliament.

“From ‘woke’ identity politics to sexist, racist, deeply reactionary talk, everything can be found within this opposition,” Tamás said.

Previous failures to beat Orbán drove the six parties to take the unprecedented step of joining forces .. https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-opposition-unites-in-bid-to-unseat-orban/ .. in late 2020. They are expected to nominate a joint candidate for prime minister in a two-round primary election this fall.

In interviews with POLITICO, all six politicians in the running for the nomination voiced confidence that it is possible to win. But many also spoke of the huge internal and external challenges they face to defeat Orbán, one of Europe’s longest-serving prime ministers who has built a reputation as a ruthless political operator in more than three decades in politics.

Internally, the inclusion of a party with far-right and anti-Semitic baggage in the coalition poses an awkward challenge for more liberal groups. Divisions over Hungary’s controversial anti-LGBTQ+ law have surfaced lately. And primary races to select joint candidates in electoral districts are fuelling competition among the opposition parties.

Externally, the challenges include attacks from the government’s propaganda machine and obstacles to getting the opposition message across against the power of the Fidesz-backed media. Earlier this month, an international consortium of media outlets and NGOs reported .. https://www.politico.eu/article/hungarian-spyware-scandal-bolsters-fears-of-orban-critics/ .. spyware has been used to target the mobile phones of government critics.

High hopes

Opposition leaders are pinning their hopes on voters being concerned above all about the state of democracy in Hungary, which has been accused by EU institutions of putting the bloc’s core values at risk.

A type of opposition voter has emerged “for whom it is not important if right-wing or left-wing, it is not important if liberal or social democrat, but it is important to be a democrat,” said Klára Dobrev, a vice president of the European Parliament and the left-liberal Democratic Coalition’s candidate for prime minister.

The anti-Orbán camp also hopes to capitalize on growing frustration with corruption and economic problems to mobilize voters.

“We believe in equal chance for everyone — meritocracy — instead of kissing the hand of the politicians and Viktor Orbán in order to have success in business or in politics,” said András Fekete-Gyor, another candidate for prime minister who leads the centrist Momentum party. “People are tired of this system.”

Those messages may be getting through.

Some 37 percent of Hungarians support the opposition list, while 36 percent back Fidesz, according to a recent poll .. https://www.ideaintezet.hu/hu/hirek-aktualis/65/listak-versenyeben-a-biztos-szavazoknal-forditott-a-fidesz .. by the IDEA Institute.

Among those Hungarians who say they would go to vote for sure, however, Fidesz has a slight edge, with 47 percent, compared to 45 percent for the opposition.

That’s a reminder for opposition strategists that one of their main challenges on election day will be to motivate citizens unhappy with Orbán to actually come out to the polls.

In 2018, nearly half of Hungarians voted .. https://www.valasztas.hu/ogy2018 .. for the Fidesz-led list, which won more than double the score of the second-placed party.

Now, the apparently close race has led some opposition leaders to argue the alliance needs an even broader voter base to secure victory.

“My goal is not just maintaining or mobilizing the opposition voters, but that I expand this camp, because I think the change in government will depend on this,” said Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony, an environment-friendly politician who has sought to brand himself as a bridge-builder and is the frontrunner to become the opposition’s prime-minister candidate.

Ground game

Much will depend on races in the country’s 106 electoral districts — where the opposition hopes to run joint candidates — and how many currently undecided voters will ultimately show up to vote against Orbán.

The alliance has a chance of winning “if the parties are able to give up their internal rivalries and try to really put forward the best, more suitable candidates in the individual electoral districts,” said József Pálinkás, a former Fidesz minister who is also in the running be the opposition’s nominee for PM.

Another challenge is the role of the right-wing Jobbik party, which has in recent years sought to shed its anti-Semitic and anti-Roma past and is now part of the opposition coalition.

Asked about concerns from Hungary’s Roma and Jewish communities, Jobbik leader Péter Jakab — another opposition candidate for prime minister — said, “if they were scared of the old Jobbik then, now they should be scared of the current Fidesz.”

Jakab, whose grandmother had Jewish origins, accused the ruling party of employing anti-Semitic messaging against him.

But ideological divisions within the opposition recently returned to the fore when Jobbik joined Fidesz in voting in favor of legislation supposedly aimed at combating pedophilia, which included a ban on the promotion or portrayal of homosexuality to minors.

“Even if we can save the life of one child from a sexual criminal, then this law was worth it,” Jakab said in defense of his party’s stance. However, he criticized some elements of the new measures and said he would support amending the legislation if the opposition wins the next election. Homosexuality “must be accepted and tolerated,” Jakab added.

Fidesz fights

Outwardly, Fidesz is projecting confidence, insisting the opposition’s campaign is of little concern.

“The situation is totally like in football,” said Tamás Deutsch, a Fidesz MEP and one of the party’s founders. “Naturally before every match, the teams analyze the adversary’s game, preparing for it. But the adversary’s tactical order at the end is uninteresting, the key for victory is always the team’s own game.”

But the Fidesz machine is working hard to thwart the opposition at this early stage of the campaign.

Streets are plastered with taxpayer-funded billboards carrying the government’s talking points. Voters are getting letters from Orbán in the mail, while state media outlets repeat conspiracy theories promoted by the ruling party. In addition, the prime minister last week called .. https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-referendum-hungary-anti-lgbtq-minors-law/ .. for a referendum on LGBTQ+ issues — expected in the months before the election — with questions the government’s opponents have criticised as stigmatizing and misleading.

Pro-government outlets appear intent on discrediting the alliance’s most popular figures, in particular Karácsony and Jakab.

They have published frequent articles criticizing Karácsony’s track record as the capital city’s mayor and also portray the opposition alliance as a project of former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, Dobrev’s husband and the current leader of the Democratic Coalition, who is widely disliked among right-wing Hungarians.

Meanwhile, opposition politicians say they cannot get their ideas through in a significant portion of the media and often can’t even purchase advertising space.

“It doesn’t matter how much you pay, you just don’t get a billboard advertisement,” said Péter Márki-Zay, the conservative mayor of the southern city of Hódmezovásárhely and another candidate to be the opposition’s choice for prime minister.

The opposition alliance has been relying heavily on social media and street campaigning to get around such obstacles and reach voters.

Even if the opposition manages to overcome obstacles clinch the election, it could still face significant challenges to governing effectively.

As part of his political strategy, Orbán has installed allies in key positions in the state apparatus for unusually long terms. A two-thirds majority in parliament would be required to overturn many of his reforms. The government has also worked to move control of state assets into the hands of its allies in recent months.

Any potential anti-Orbán government would face Fidesz-friendly faces at the helm of institutions from the public prosecutor’s office to the media council.

There are “many points in the Hungarian constitutional arrangements whose aim is that, if there is a government that is not Fidesz, it will not be able to govern,” said the Democratic Coalition’s Dobrev.

The opposition alliance has issued a joint document vowing to seek a wide-ranging societal consultation on a new constitution, if it wins.

“We need to create a pluralistic, diverse constitution that reflects and declares our basic values,” the parties wrote.

More from ... Lili Bayer .. https://www.politico.eu/author/lili-bayer/

https://www.politico.eu/article/inside-the-hungarian-opposition-uphill-battle-to-beat-viktor-orban-fidesz-party/

[fuagf]

Italy’s Largest Left-Wing Party Is Waging War on the Poor

"It happened there: how democracy died in Hungary
"TUCKER CARLSON IS JOINING THE RIGHT-WING PARADE TO “ILLIBERAL” HUNGARY"
[...]
Hungarians aren’t uniquely xenophobic by European standards. Across the continent, politicians like Orbán have ridden anti-migrant sentiment to political power. The current Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, campaigned on an immigration platform .. https://www.vox.com/world/2017/10/16/16482416/sebastian-kurz-austria-far-right-right-migrants .. similar to Orbán’s; Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini .. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/italy-matteo-salvini-video-immigration-mass-cleansing-roma-travellers-far-right-league-party-a8409506.html .. has called for a street-by-street “mass cleansing” of undocumented migrants. Polish President Andrzej Duda .. thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/325885,Terrorism-linked-to-migration-Polish-president .. has blamed migrants for terrorist attacks and decried the “far-reaching political correctness” of Europeans who refuse to do the same."

The Democratic Party cares more about fighting populists than ending inequality. Its new brand of Reaganomics will lead to yet another electoral defeat.

By Giorgio Ghiglione, a freelance writer in Milan.


Stefano Bonaccini, the president of the Italian region of Emilia-Romagna and a member of Italy’s Democratic Party, addresses a press conference in Bologna on Jan. 27, 2020. MIGUEL MEDINA/AFP via Getty Images

August 12, 2021, 3:09 PM

When Matteo Orfini, a senior lawmaker with Italy’s Democratic Party (PD), proposed .. https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/patrimoniale-pd-prende-distanze-dall-emendamento-orfini-fratoianni-maio-sarebbe-folle-un-momento-crisi-come-questo-AD725K5 .. a property tax for the very wealthy, his own party burst into panic. The tax he proposed would have affected only .. https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/11/28/news/manovra_deputati_leu_pd_patrimoniale_imu-276202883/ .. those earning more than 500,000 euros ($587,000) per year, a small fraction of Italy’s population, but PD leaders rushed to distance themselves from Orfini, stating that he was speaking in a personal capacity and that the party line .. https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/effetto-patrimoniale-pd-prende-le-distanze-m5s-fa-muro-la-destra-insorge_it_5fc3cc0dc5b6e4b1ea4c2e8f .. was that taxes should be cut, period.

Just when progressive parties in Europe and the Democrats in the United States are moving left on economic issues, vocally questioning the idea of a self-regulating free market and supporting public spending to reduce inequalities, Italy’s major left-of-center party appears to have taken an entirely different path.

Now a senior partner in Mario Draghi’s grand coalition, the PD has long positioned itself as an “institutional party,” a political force basing its identity on the preservation of stability, maintaining good relations with the European Union, and, most of all, being a “bulwark against populism,” as its leaders have often repeated.

But to do so, the PD chose to abandon entirely the fight against inequality. A cause until recently strongly associated with the left, many economic grievances have now been appropriated by populist parties—to the point that the PD has developed a rhetoric stigmatizing economic grievances.

==========

In the past decade, Italian populists have been on the rise, and as a response the PD has increasingly come to center its identity on the concept of being anti-populist, rather than being progressive. This shift has alienated much of the working class but allowed the PD to maintain a base among two main categories that are less affected by Italy’s economic stagnation: college-educated voters in large urban centers .. https://www.editorialedomani.it/politica/italia/il-partito-della-ztl-ha-votato-no-e-corrisponde-alla-base-del-pd-aauba7ea , who tend to be affluent and appreciate anti-populist stances, and older citizens, whose status as retired workers receiving a state pension has sheltered them to an extent from economic difficulties, regardless of their education or class status. In other words, the party’s anti-populist identity takes precedence over the party’s center-left identity, and this means it must oppose any measure that is perceived, rightly or wrongly, as populist.

[INSERT: Politics over principle. A tough call sometimes. Still the scourge of ever-increasing and surely unsustainable
grabbing of wealth by the most wealthy (mostly obscenely greedy) top is too crucially important to abandon.]

Italy’s main two populist formations—Matteo Salvini’s staunchly anti-immigration League and the Five Star Movement, which styles itself as an anti-establishment force championing the outrage of ordinary citizens—owe much of their success to the two recent economic crises that struck the country, first in 2008 .. https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/article/2010/effects-of-economic-crisis-on-italian-economy .. and then in 2011 .. https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/2011-crisis-italy-story-deep-rooted-and-still-unresolved-economic-and-political , from which the country has never fully recovered. Italy’s GDP has still not rebounded .. https://www.avvenire.it/economia/pagine/ma-lanno-prossimo-saremo-del-5-sotto-i-livelli-del-2008 .. to pre-2008 levels.
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Italy’s main two populist formations owe much of their success
to the two recent economic crises that struck the country.
--
When, for a brief period between the summer of 2018 and the summer of 2019, these two parties ruled together in a League-Five Star coalition, they increased social spending, introducing two new policies: on the one hand, a reform .. https://www.fiscoetasse.com/approfondimenti/13305-quota-100-le-regole-e-le-riforme-in-arrivo.html .. of the pension system that made it easier for many workers to retire before they reached the standard pension age of 67, and on the other, the so-called Citizenship Income .. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjc_NCMyIryAhWPPewKHapOCDYQFjABegQIBxAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fec.europa.eu%2Fsocial%2FBlobServlet%3FdocId%3D21476%26langId%3Den&usg=AOvVaw168ze71H_nxyB0ST_ItwHY , a monthly cash subsidy for the unemployed and the working poor, which 4.3 million Italians are now receiving. (The measure was wrongly framed as a universal basic income, which is allocated to all citizens as an extra source of income; the Italian variant is allocated to only the very poor, the vast majority of whom are unemployed.)

The PD has firmly opposed both policies because it primarily saw them as a tool that would further increase Italy’s high public debt and, therefore, the country’s financial stability. The PD vehemently criticized the Citizenship Income in particular, even after the party became an unlikely bedfellow with populists, first when it formed a PD-Five Star coalition in 2019 and now with Draghi’s grand coalition, in which both the League and Five Star are partners to the PD.

Stefano Bonaccini, a prominent PD leader and regional president of Emilia-Romagna, a wealthy, progressive .. https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2020/01/how-italian-left-defied-far-right-emilia-romagna .. region in the country’s north, criticized the subsidies, saying that they incentivize people to sit at home and watch TV .. https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/09/19/news/lite_barca-_bonaccini_sul_reddito_di_cittadinanza-267867325/ , rather than find a job. In doing so, Bonaccini, who started .. https://twitter.com/sbonaccini/status/1307458252112830464 .. his political career in Italy’s Communist Party, echoed an oft-repeated mantra of the anti-welfare right. Today, he’s considered the rising star of the PD. Maria Elena Boschi, another senior PD leader who later defected to the centrist Italia Viva, likened the Citizenship Income to a whole life spent on vacation .. https://twitter.com/meb/status/1085982818088505345?lang=it .

These are not the only occasions when the PD has antagonized social policies supported by populists. Indeed, a proposed minimum wage bill .. https://www.thelocal.it/20190618/is-italy-about-to-introduce-a-minimum-wage/ .. in 2019 initially supported both by the PD and Five Star eventually sank when the PD pulled its support because it thought the proposed threshold of 9 euros ($10.50) per hour was too high .. https://www.affaritaliani.it/economia/salario-minimo-il-pd-si-mette-di-traverso-troppi-i-9-euro-proposti-dal-m5s-653512.html . More recently, this summer, the PD successfully pushed .. https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/lavoro-termine-arriva-deroga-causali-piu-spazio-contratti-collettivi-AE74oQV .. an amendment that loosened the regulations on short-term contracts.

In 2018, the League-Five Star government introduced a bill—nicknamed the “dignity decree”—that limited temporary contracts to 24 months, after which employers had to either permanently hire their employees or lay them off. This measure was meant to curb the widespread practice of hiring workers with serial short-term contracts, which some employers use to hire senior, experienced staff while paying them as newbies.

The new government sought to amend the dignity decree, making it easier for employers to avoid switching to the permanent hire; the modified law now encourages negotiation with unions, which are mostly powerless in the small firms that make up a significant part of Italy’s economy.

In other words, the PD is not just stuck in a 1990s Blairite mood but has embraced some talking points that in the United States would be associated with the Republican Party: Welfare is making people lazy, employment should be unregulated, and taxes should be cut.

Mario Ricciardi, a philosophy professor at the University of Milan and editor of the political magazine Il Mulino, said the Italian center-left is failing to tackle inequalities because “it is frozen in time,” as if it were still living in the 1990s. While in much of the rest of the world the left has realized that the disparity between the rich and the poor is growing, he said, this hasn’t happened in Italy. “Despite the fact that many economists are now questioning old dogmas, like labor flexibility, the [PD] is holding on to old ideas,” Ricciardi said. “For the past 10 years, they have kept their heads in the sand.”

Read More
Has Italy’s Five Star Movement Given Up on Populism?
The anti-establishment bad boys of years past are changing their stripes—maybe.
Report | Michele Barbero
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/17/italy-five-star-movement-populism-europe/

Italy’s Economic Recovery Plan Needs to Think Local
Already a circular economy leader in technology, Italy must involve communities if its “green recovery” is to succeed.
Argument | Ylenia Gostoli
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/18/italy-pandemic-economy-recovery-plan-next-generation-eu-climate-circular-economy-sustainability/

Of course, Italy is not the only European country where a left-of-center party has endorsed neoliberal policies and clashed with populists about it. In 2016, France, under the Socialist government of François Hollande, passed labor reforms that introduced more flexibility in the workforce. By contrast, the far-right National Front party (now National Rally) protested against such reforms, albeit mildly .. https://www.liberation.fr/l-oeil-sur-le-front/2017/09/07/front-national-contre-la-loi-travail-un-combat-si-discret_1594849/ .

What sets Italy apart, however, is that its major left-leaning party is now fighting to dismantle the social policies introduced by populists a few years ago to benefit vulnerable workers and the unemployed. In other words, the PD is waging a pro-inequality war and is doing so in the name of responsibility. If populists, the most irresponsible of political tribes, want to help the poor, so goes their reasoning, then the responsible thing to do is not to help at all.

[Black and white bare bones, since you go there i'm out. Ouch.]

Since its birth, the PD has been all about responsibility or, rather, has had a mindset equating responsibility with moderation and continuity with the ideas that were dominant in the early 2000s. The PD was founded in 2007 as a fusion .. https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2017/10/13/foto/fusioni_scissioni_vittorie_e_sconfitte_10_anni_di_pd-178145698/1/ .. between former communists and progressive Catholics in an attempt to produce a counterweight to the conservative camp then unified under Silvio Berlusconi. The idea was to create a pro-Europe, moderate big tent and a “partito di governo,” or a party capable of governing the country almost by itself.
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Italy’s major left-leaning party is fighting to dismantle the social policies that populists
introduced to benefit vulnerable workers and the unemployed.
--
But within a few years, Italy’s political landscape changed dramatically, as Berlusconi’s decline produced a Balkanization of the right and the economic crisis sparked the rise of populists. “The PD is now surrounded by parties that are its opposite,” said Vincenzo Emanuele, a political scientist at the LUISS Guido Carli university in Rome.

In this context, the PD’s goal shifted from being able to govern by itself to taking part in (almost) any coalition government, not out of a lust of power but out of a sense of responsibility, as if they had to play the role of the adult in the room. “When there’s the need to form a coalition, the [PD] is always available. They have proven to be a safe bet for each Italian president,” said Emanuele, referring to the fact that in Italy the head of state is responsible for facilitating the formation of a stable governing coalition.

Today, the PD is trapped in this role. It has built its identity around being a “bulwark against populism,” as the only party capable of bringing competent people to the government, to the point that a slogan of the party’s 2018 election campaign was “Vote science, vote PD .. https://www.partitodemocratico.it/wp-content/uploads/4699b01c-0044-11e8-8d22-001b21be4498 .” The party is so immersed in this anti-populist role that it cannot endorse any policies supported by populists, even when those policies advance traditionally progressive causes.

This political strategy has made the PD viable as a constant coalition partner, but it has also proved ineffective to win elections. “In its 13 years of life, the PD has been part of some kind of governing coalition for 10 years,” Emanuele said. But it has never won an election. Today, the PD is stuck around 20 percent in polls, which does not make it as politically irrelevant as France’s Socialists .. https://www.france24.com/en/20170424-historic-french-presidential-election-drubbing-socialists-hamon .. but nor does it put the party in the position of leading any future coalition.

In 2018, Italy became the first European country where most voters chose populist parties. Since then, some things have changed—for instance, Five Star has lost significant support after infighting, and the League .. https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/swg-fdi-giorgia-meloni-sorpassa-lega-ed-e-primo-partito-AEZissT .. is losing votes to another far-right party, the post-fascist Brothers of Italy—but populists as a whole are still strong.
--
The PD is not just stuck in a 1990s Blairite mood but has embraced talking points that in the United States
would be associated with the Republican Party.
--
Italy is now governed by a grand coalition led by Draghi, a former European Central Bank president, encompassing all major political parties except the Brothers of Italy. But while the League and Five Star are supporting Draghi reluctantly, the PD is enthusiastically pro-Draghi. This situation is further crystallizing the perception of the PD as a dull political force with no other ideology than supporting stability as an end in itself.

“In the PD, there are no new ideas, no big ideas, and the few original ideas have been silenced,” said Gianfranco Pasquino, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Bologna. He said the PD has now been reduced to a “party just waiting for something to happen.”

But if the PD keeps waiting, that something might be yet another even more humiliating electoral defeat.

Giorgio Ghiglione is a freelance writer in Milan. His work has appeared in the Guardian, Al Jazeera, and Internazionale. Twitter: @giorgioghiglion

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/12/italy-democratic-party-left-economic-policy-inequality-populism/?tpcc=recirc_latestanalysis062921