Replies to post #662234 on Mr Cooper Group Inc fka COOP

[SamuraiProgrammer]

I appreciate your post. Thank you for your clarification and I apologize for getting as excited as I did.

We're good from my side :) I really mean that. I sincerely apologize for losing my cool.


The rest of this post is rambling but some of you might enjoy it...It's late and I just got back from a baseball game.

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The crux of the issue (as well as the trigger that I failed to ignore) has to do with this statement:

then it would make sense to that person to sell COOP stock now to buy back later

The problem is one of timing and severity of the move(s). It may not be possible for mere retail holders to be able to reacquire the shares at a price lower than what they sold them for.

All of this is conjecture based on possibilities. Anyone who hasn't followed this line of thought for quite some time (not just the last day or two) needs to be aware - it is just conjecture.

Having said that...

If there is a COOP share exchange with escrow holders to acquire BK remote assets, I do believe that there will be a sharp pull back. I also believe it will recover. What I have no idea about is how long that process will take. It could take months. OR it could take only minutes. <--THIS IS WHAT SCARES ME.

How long it takes will (IMO) be determined by the big players and their understanding of how to separate retail from their holdings.

Let's look at the possibilities of how it might happen in a VERY short period of time:

To big boyz, it is not about how much they pay for the shares. IMO, it is about how many shares they can acquire. Many of (including the BOD) believe this is the goose that will lay many golden eggs.

With the natural inclination of long term holders to finally cash in, it would be a really great time for the big boyz to let the price freefall (by simply not buying) until more and more people panic and sell. Then, probably with a savvy computer program set up to execute the plan at the speed of light, suddenly there will be more buy orders than can be filled. Yes, the price will go back up. Yes, it will go higher than it started.

BUT, along the way, they will pick up lots of share on the cheap and even if they have to pay more for other shares than the market price leading into the event, their average price will be better than the lead in market price AND they will get more shares this way.

Assuming there is a windfall issuance of COOP shares to escrow holders, will I sell my shares? Yes, some of them. When will I sell them? Certainly not on the first day. This is why I got so excited. I would never advise someone to do something I wouldn't do :)

I'm not giving advice on what anyone should do. It could be wrong to hold. But I am not going to give the big boyz a chance to own my shares until I am not going to want them back. I fear that the price will be too high.

Day trading or even short term flipping (2 or 3 days) is fine for some traders and for some stocks. Frankly, this is a long term trade. I don't want to take a chance on breaking it by flipping and missing the move because I can't afford it.

Maybe my view of how these things happen is jaded. I have seen how thinly traded markets behave in commodities. Yes, these are stocks and are different, but at the same time the float is small enough that I don't believe COOP qualifies as a 'liquid' market. When the defecatory material hits the oscillatory object (s hits the f) things will happen so fast that by the time you can reach for your keyboard it will be too late to do anything about it.

Electronic trading makes us peons closer to the market than ever before. However, trading programs have more of an advantage over us than most people realize.

I was a programmer for a firm that did commodities brokerage. I watched as that market made the transition to electronic trading. On my own time (i.e. not for the company I worked for), I participated in software design to do these kinds of trades.

Everyone needs to remember this KEY FACT:

Stop orders become market orders when the market trades at or past the stop.

In plain english : you have no guarantee that the price your stop order is executed at has ANYTHING to do with the stop price.

Read that again if it doesn't make sense.

Ask anyone who had stop loss orders in WMIH (EDIT: not WMIH but rather WAMUQ) the day our 'beloved' attorney stated there would be nothing for escrow holders. Stop orders in the 60 cent range were filled in the 30 cent range. These kinds of events do not happen frequently, but the snakes are ready to strike when circumstances point to the possibility.



Everyone needs to know this as well (and please point to documentation if this is old and no longer correct):

Circuit breakers for individual stocks do not apply during the first 15 minutes of the trading session OR during after hours trading

See the 5th paragraph