"A win leads to $50 plus, 18 is crap.."
Completely unencumbered, Fannie and Freddie both are probably $200+ stocks.
Yeah, $50 OR 25% of unencumbered price could be reasonable with a favorable SCOTUS opinion. However, what SCOTUS is considering is just a battle, not the war. Until the conservatorships end, the war has not been won.