maybe i'm overly cynical, but i've seen the powers-that-be hold a stock, or an entire index, just underneath support, to shake the tree, sometimes for weeks, or even months, before an eventual rally.
so if the only metrics examimed in our analysis of BTC or other cryptos are technical, and not fundamental, or even cultural, it assumes (incorrectly) that weakness is real, and not borne out of manipulation.
we've seen it so many times over the years. the biggest (and most recent) bull run on US big boards started with an artificial dip, created by algorithmic traders. that's just one example of many.
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