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Zeev Hed

10/26/03 10:25 AM

#165175 RE: SantaCruz #165174

It could very well be, the question is how far that will go, if 6% GDP growth is already discounted by the recent general advance, it may not go too far. As I said in my last post, I would be more confident in my bullish stance if we had closed above 1865 and if the equity P/C ratio got a little higher than .8. The local bottoms in early August and late September had equity P/C ratio going above .9. Yet, the fact that 1842 held keeps me solidly in the bull camp. Maybe .8 is "just enough" for a cyclical bull retrenchment...So we don't disagree much.
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lee kramer

10/26/03 12:12 PM

#165190 RE: SantaCruz #165174

Santa Cruz: GDP is a lagging indicator and I think the pro's know it's going to be a pretty good number. You might see them selling into any rally as the GDP is announced.
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SantaCruz

10/30/03 9:30 AM

#166431 RE: SantaCruz #165174

I thought closer to 8%. Maybe they'll do something different this time and revise 'up'. :)

So, the question now is, "why did so many companies NOT have blowout earnings AND are guiding lower"?

Ok, I guess there's another question. What will Q4 and Q1 GDP look like? Is it downhill from here? Was it a 'blow the wad' quarter? Or is this just the beginning of a great economic recovery?