It is not difficult to estimate if retailers are or aren't buying. If they were it would force upward price pressure. That upward pressure would force a gamma squeeze like GME.
We saw that squeeze previously in the run up to 10 dollars before the share price came crashing down. Currently CYDY has been trailing down so it would not trigger margin calls or calls to cover. I am of the belief that the short selling market understands the price fluctuations. Right now 3.50 seems to be the concrete ceiling for the stock where they shorts know they can make a few bucks and watch it slide into the lower 3s.
I take this round of class actions more seriously because it's aimed at something provable. You can prove Nader misspoke frequently and mislead investors. He has always been a liability and now someone has enough of Nader on tape to make an accusation that can stick. Remember this is already moving to trial based on the last filing where lawyers have been admitted before the court. The next step is Discovery, that means depositions and documents subpoenaed. That means Nader sitting in front of a lawyer having to give straight, accurate and honest answers. Then do it again at trial. His legal team probably understands better than anyone why that would be a catastrophy.
Bankruptcy in October is very real. First, Nader has what to show potential lenders? He has his dog and pony show presentation, behind that all the failed trails and the rejection of the HIV BLA. Nader has already approached several vulture capital firms, that's the last stop on the road.
Second, CYDY has no revenue and tons of overhead. The value proposition for CYDY was based on getting something through off the first trial. In which case the initial raises for capital was more than justified. Now we are in a situation where overhead is being doubled, no clear revenue path in sight and a reoccuring theme of funding issues. Nader has either sell the company to someone, dilute the share price further, take on crippling financing terms.
Third, no one wants to do business with Nader. From a financing standpoint he has simply run out of road. The lack of tangible assets or revenue streams makes him unattractive to entrust with investment dollars. Is anyone going to give him that 100 to 200 million at this point with his track record? HIV was this company's clear path to victory and Nader punted. Anyone potentially giving money to Nader has to ask why do that? Either HIV is fundamentally flawed and unfixable, or Nader lacks good judgement.
Going back to GME, GME has tons of value, the bear thesis went a bridge too far. In CYDY's case the bull thesis is a bridge too far.
Beyond getting a successful trial completed, there is nothing that can add value to the company at this point. You and I know they need a study that uses all the patients, they can't cherry pick through numbers on a study they didn't actually design for patients to be separated out. They gambled heavily on combining both groups to get the P value they wanted and lost.
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