4:20 pm : The major averages finished in split fashion Friday as investors juggled mixed earnings news, a rebound in oil prices and the belief that stocks, especially tech, may be oversold at current levels.
IBM (IBM 96.17 -3.28) became the third tech bellwether in as many days to beat consensus estimates but also deliver a report that did not live up to the market's lofty expectations. The Dow component, which was up nearly 25% since October, topped estimates; but expectations running high into the report offered investors an opportunity to lock in profits. As the highest priced stock on the Dow, it is worth noting that the 3.3% decline in Big Blue accounted for 26 points of the selling pressure that kept the Dow in negative territory most of the day.
With the Nasdaq on pace for its worst weekly performance since last July, a sense that the recent bloodletting was overextended attracted some bargain-hunting interest. Among the biggest beneficiaries helping the tech-heavy Composite snap a three-day losing streak were chip stocks.
Xilinx (XLNX 23.88 +0.91) turned in the best recovery effort on the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, which plunged 3.9% yesterday. Citigroup telling investors to buy Intel (INTC 20.82 +0.17) on weakness provided additional support while some upbeat news from Motorola (MOT 19.27 +0.56) also helped to renew enthusiasm in several beaten-down tech names. Motorola posted a 48% drop in Q4 earnings, but the market applauded its plans to save $400 mln over two years by cutting as many as 3,500 jobs.
Of the seven sectors closing higher, Energy paced the way (+2.5%). Oil prices closing at session highs near $52/bbl was certainly a big reason why, especially with crude for February delivery touching 20-month lows yesterday below $50/bbl. However, Schlumberger (SLB 61.00 +3.10) posting a 71% rise in Q4 profits and saying that any moderation in activity (the fear given lower energy prices) will be short-lived also helped renew some optimism about the sector's earnings potential. The stock, which was down 8.3% year to date yesterday, more than halved that decline today (+5.4%).
With Tech finishing just below the flat line (but basically flat), the only sector under noticeable pressure today was Industrials. General Electric (GE 36.95 -1.05) said Q4 profits more than doubled, matching Wall Street estimates. However, management also saying it will restate financials from 2001 to 2006 pushed the stock down 2.8%, and earmarked Industrial Conglomerates as today's worst performing S&P industry group (-2.3%) which contributed to the Dow's inability to finish in positive territory. BTK +0.6% DJ30 -2.40 DJTA +0.8% DJUA +0.4% DOT -0.2% NASDAQ +8.10 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.9% SOX +0.6% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +4.13 XOI +2.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1178/1827/2.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 998/2273/1.55 bln
3:30 pm : Stocks are off their afternoon highs but holding onto the bulk of their gains going into the close. Eight out of 10 sectors are now in the green, with Health Care and Consumer Discretionary becoming the latest to turn the corner. Unfortunately for the bulls, gains are so minimal (between 0.1-0.3%) in every sector trading to the upside other than Energy (+2.3%) and Materials (+1.5%) that gains on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also remain limited. As a reminder, Energy and Materials only account for a combined 12.8% weighting on the broader market. DJ30 -6.37 NASDAQ +7.41 SP500 +3.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1156/1820/1.70 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1019/2232/1.28 bln
3:00 pm : With the exception of noticeable weakness from two Dow components (e.g. IBM -3.5% and GE -2.4%), positive breadth figures and strong industry leadership to the upside continue to bode well for equities overall. A recent turnaround in the Tech sector now has the Nasdaq trading at session highs; but its respectable 0.4% advance pales in comparison to a 0.9% gain on the Russell 2000 Index. The latter's gain lifts it into positive territory for the year while the Nasdaq's rebound extends its year-to-date gain to 1.7% to lead the majors and snaps a three-day losing streak. DJ30 -5.77 NASDAQ +10.03 SP500 +4.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1190/1764/1.60 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1058/2177/1.20 bln
2:30 pm : Range-bound trading persists in stocks as split industry leadership continues to decide today's action. Of the six sectors trading in positive territory, Energy continues to pace the way higher (+2.1%). Oil prices recently closing at session highs near $52/bbl is certainty a big reason why. However, Schlumberger (SLB 60.79 +2.89) posting a 71% rise in Q4 profits and saying that any moderation in activity (the fear given lower energy prices) will be short-lived have also helped renew some optimism about the Energy sector's earnings potential, especially with oil prices touching 20-month lows yesterday. The stock, which was down 8.3% year to date yesterday, has more than halved that decline today (+5.0%). DJ30 -8.72 NASDAQ +7.62 SP500 +3.58 XOI +1.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1178/1754/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1069/2153/1.01 bln
2:00 pm : More of the same for stocks as the Dow and Nasdaq continue to trade in opposing directions. On the Dow, 17 of 30 components are trading higher, but since IBM (IBM 96.21 -3.24) carries so much influence, its 3.3% decline is offsetting notable strength from blue chips like AA, GM, JPM, and XOM which are average gains of 1.9%. Among the biggest names helping the tech-heavy Nasdaq hold onto a modest rebound are members of the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index: ALTR (+1.5%), BRCM (+2.7%), KLAC (+1.4%), and XLNX (+3.4%). DJ30 -10.57 NASDAQ +4.02 SOX +0.7% SP500 +2.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1268/1653/1.37 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1171/2031/1.04 bln
1:30 pm : The indices are improving their stance but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings. Investors appear to be finding some comfort from Kansas City Fed President and voting Fed official Thomas Hoenig recently saying the U.S. Economy will improve during rest of year and that inflation will recede. Hoenig's prepared remarks also noting that the housing market will stabilize and that housing inventories will decline over the first half are also noteworthy, especially after Richmond Fed President Lacker early this morning said that further deterioration in housing remains a risk to the economic outlook. DJ30 -8.67 NASDAQ +3.28 SP500 +2.67 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1322/1575/1.25 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1144/2030/952 mln
1:00 pm : Stocks are still running in place around the unchanged mark as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on the NYSE hold a 19-to -12 advantage over decliners while both advancing and declining issues on the Nasdaq remain evenly matched. A split ratio of up to down volumes also paints a similarly neutral picture at the Big Board and the Composite. DJ30 -23.07 NASDAQ +0.11 SP500 +1.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1428/1457/1.16 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1230/1922/876 mln
12:30 pm : The major averages remain mixed as the afternoon gets underway. Meanwhile, Materials has recently climbed to session highs, in sympathy with Alcoa (AA 31.10 +0.79) surging 2.6% to its best levels of the day. The Dow component's Board recently approved the repurchase of up to 10% of AA common stock and boosted the dividend 13%. However, since Materials is the least influential of all 10 S&P 500 sectors, its 1.3% advance is struggling to offset recent reversals in Financials and Health Care, which account for a combined 34% of the total weighting on the broader market.DJ30 -24.03 NASDAQ +0.13 SP500 +1.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1365/1486/1.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1205/1998/792 mln
12:00 pm : Recent recovery efforts have stalled a bit heading into the New York lunch hour as another round of quarterly reports not living up to the market's lofty expectations underpin the cautious tone that typically accompanies the early part of earnings season.
The latest tech giant to post a good report that evidently wasn't good enough is IBM (IBM 95.84 -3.61). The Dow component, which is up more than 10% in the last month, topped estimates; but expectations running high into report have offered investors an opportunity to lock in profits. As the highest price stock on the Dow, it is worth noting that IBM's 3.6% decline accounts for nearly 30 points of selling pressure.
With the Nasdaq on pace for its worst weekly performance since last July, the belief that recent selling efforts are overextended has, however, attracted some intraday bargain-hunting interest. One of the biggest beneficiaries has been Semiconductors while some upbeat news from Motorola (MOT 19.31 +0.60) is also helping to renew optimism in several beaten-down Tech names. It is also worth noting that IBM is listed on the NYSE, not the Nasdaq, like previous tech victims Apple (AAPL 88.42 -0.65) and Intel (INTC 20.69 +0.04) are.
The only other sector under notable pressure is Industrials. General Electric (GE 37.23 -0.77) said Q4 profits more than doubled, matching Wall Street estimates; but management also saying it will restate financials from 2001 to 2005 is contributing to the Dow component's 2.0% decline.
Strangely, oil's nearly 20% sell-off this year has been largely ignored by the overall market; but the commodity rebounding 2.4% this morning amid cold weather forecasts has provided enough upside leadership in Energy (+2.2%) to help give the broader market a slight boost. DJ30 -8.41 NASDAQ +4.30 SOX +0.8% SP500 +2.86 XOI +1.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1195/1612/940 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1051/2049/700 mln
11:30 am : The major indices are holding steady at improved levels, still being led by a rebound on the Nasdaq. Nowhere are buying efforts more prevalent than on the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, which was down 3.9% yesterday but is currently bouncing back to the tune of 1.4%. In addition to bargain hunters selectively picking up depressed tech stocks, a 1.6% rebound in Energy is also acting as a notable source of support. The sector ranked behind Tech yesterday, losing ground in sympathy with a 3.3% sell-off in oil. Crude for February delivery, which expires Monday, is up 1.5% at $51.20/bbl. The March contract, which has more open interest, is up 2.0% at $52.87/bbl as the Northeast prepares for a blast of cold weather. DJ30 +3.92 NASDAQ +7.07 SOX +1.4% SP500 +4.11 XOI +1.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1118/1654/805 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 983/2080/592 mln
11:00 am : A renewed wave of buying interest within the last 30 minutes helps the Dow and Nasdaq turn positive. A sense that stocks may be oversold at current levels, especially in Technology, appears to be contributing the Nasdaq's turnaround. As of yesterday's close, the tech-heavy Composite was down 2.4% over just three days of trading and on pace for its worst weekly performance since last July.
The improvement in sentiment has been further evidenced in the market internals, as advancers on the Nasdaq have recently edged ever so slightly past decliners. Also helping Tech pare its losses and rejuvenate interest in the beaten-down sector have been reports that Motorola (MOT 19.08 +0.38), which posted a 48% drop in Q4 earnings, plans to save $400 mln over two years by cutting as many as 3,500 jobs. The stock is now up nearly 2.0%.DJ30 +10.97 NASDAQ +6.56 SP500 +4.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1314/1386/643 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1297/1681/476 mln
10:30 am : Not much has changed since the last update as this week's last piece of economic news fails to impress investors. At the top of the hour, a survey compiled by the University of Michigan checked in with a stronger than expected preliminary read of 98.0 -- the highest level in three years. The expectations index rose to 88.7, the highest since December 2004. Be that as it may, response to the data has been muted so far since there isn't as strong a correlation between sentiment and consumer spending as some might think. DJ30 -20.67 NASDAQ -4.24 SP500 +0.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1459/1140/466 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1434/1454/344 mln
10:00 am : The major averages continue to trade in split fashion as investors still exhibit a sense of uneasiness about owning equities. Aside from follow-through selling in Tech, Industrials ranking as today's second worst performing sector is also removing some notable leadership. Dow component General Electric (GE 37.35 -0.65) said Q4 profits more than doubled, matching Wall Street estimates; but management also saying it will restate financials from 2001 to 2005 is contributing to the stock's 1.7% decline. The Energy sector, however, more than recouping yesterday's 0.7% decline is helping to minimize early losses on the Dow and keep the S&P 500 clinging to a small gain. DJ30 -21.87 NASDAQ -5.32 SP500 +0.24 XOI +0.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1437/1001/260 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1319/1370/180 mln
09:40 am : Stocks open modestly lower as another round of earnings results fails to excite investors. IBM (IBM 94.95 -4.50) has become the third tech bellwether in as many days to beat consensus estimates but also deliver a report that has not lived up to the market's lofty expectations. The Dow component, which is up nearly 25% since October, is consolidating to the tune of 4.5% and earmarking Tech as the day's biggest laggard yet again. DJ30 -11.28 NASDAQ -4.24 SP500 +0.74 NASDAQ Vol 88 mln NYSE Vol 52 mln
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are off their morning lows, but both still point to a weak start for equities. As a reminder, the market frequently has a cautious tone during the early part of earnings season. Throw in Tech seasonality, options expiration and growing concerns that 13 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500 may come to an end, and it's not all that surprising to see investors take some money off the table until there's a clearer picture on the earnings front.
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. Still shaping up to be another down day for stocks as futures trade continues to languish below fair value. While there may not be any potentially troubling economic data to rattle pre-market sentiment, investors are sifting through some recent Fed speak. Richmond Fed President Lacker saying that inflation remains the "predominant" risk is nothing new, especially from the lone dissenter at the last few FOMC meetings. However, Lacker adding that further deterioration in housing and oil price uncertainty remain risks to the economic outlook tarnish what few positives (i.e. upbeat housing data and oil down 3.4%) traders had to work with during yesterday's market decline.
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. Futures indications suggest the market's recent losing streak will carry over into this morning's opening bell as seasonal weakness in Technology continues to play out earlier than anticipated. Bellwether IBM (IBM) is shaping up to be today's biggest trouble spot. Despite topping Wall Street expectations, IBM shares are plunging 5% in pre-market action after failing to report the blow-out numbers investors have been pricing into the stock to the tune of about 25% since October. Other Dow components out with solid earnings, but also not generating the enthusiasm of months past, are General Electric (GE) and Citigroup (C), as it becomes increasingly apparent the market is now more fixated on the negatives.
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