Replies to post #237394 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

AVEO—OS was actually slightly better—(HR=0.97)—in the Fotivda arm than in the Nexavar (control) arm. (Median OS was worse in the Fotivda arm, but median values don’t mean much.) The HR for PFS, the primary endpoint, was 0.73, so the HR for OS merely needed to not be awful to get by.

In any event, the main reason for today’s spike in AVEO’s share price (IMO) is that Fotivda’s path to FDA approval was long and tortuous (#msg-152089747), so investors could not take anything for granted.

[dewophile]

The OS curves must cross bc HR less than one while median Numerically worse. So perhaps the farther out you go you start to see incremental OS benefit for the drug? Anyway unless you have another selling point like tolerability advantage or some benefit in clearly defined subgroup hard to see oncologists lining up to prescribe it for small PFS benefit and equal OS