Replies to post #130 on Cannabist Co Hldgs Inc (CBSTQ)

[JohnCM]

This is a top fiver for me.

[JohnCM]

Press Release: Columbia Care Reports Record Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results; Issues 2021 Guidance

BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
03/03/2021

Columbia Care Reports Record Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results; Issues 2021 Guidance

Q4 & Full Year 2020 Preliminary Results Exceed Consensus Estimates and Reflect Continued Growth and Improvement Across Key Financial Metrics

Delivers on 2020 Outlook with Outperformance in Multiple Markets Across the Country

Strong Balance Sheet with More Than C$179 Million Raised Subsequent to Year-End; Well-Positioned for Additional Accretive Acquisitions and Targeted Growth CapEx in Markets Converting from Medical Only to Adult Use NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 03, 2021--

Columbia Care Inc. ( CCHWF ) (FSE: 3LP) ("Columbia Care" or the "Company") is providing preliminary results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2020. The Company is also issuing 2021 guidance.

"Our record-breaking fourth quarter and full year performance was driven by continued revenue growth and margin expansion. We generated robust sequential and year-over-year increases in Combined Revenue, Gross Profit and Adjusted EBITDA," said Nicholas Vita, CEO of Columbia Care ( CCHWF ). "We effectively navigated the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and, in spite of those headwinds, delivered an exceptional year as we exceeded every milestone target set forth in our 2020 outlook. Highlighting our position as an industry consolidator, we closed key acquisitions with The Green Solution and Project Cannabis and announced the transformational acquisition of Green Leaf Medical, which remains on target to close in the 3(rd) quarter of this year.

Most notably, corporate profitability continued to expand as we further leverage our national scale. Including the full fourth quarter's financial contribution of Project Cannabis, Columbia Care ( CCHWF ) generated approximately $87M in Combined Revenue (4th quarter ONLY!!) and $12M in Adjusted EBITDA. We have continued to see sequential revenue growth and margin improvements in the first quarter 2021, affirming Columbia Care's ( CCHWF ) position as the fastest growing top-tier multi-state operator.(1) I am extremely proud of our team's dedication to executing our growth strategy and delivering the highest-quality cannabis to our loyal patients and customers in the communities we serve."

Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Highlights(2) (in $ thousands, excl.
margin items)

Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2019 % QoQ % YoY
---------- ------------ ----------- ------------- ----- -------
Combined
Results
---------- ------------ --- ------ --- -------- ----- -----
Revenue $ 81,799 $ 54,162 $ 24,524 51% 234%
---------- ---- ------ --- ------ --- -------- ----- -----
Adj. Gross
Profit(3) $ 33,976 $ 21,157 $ 6,017 61% 465%
---------- ---- ------ --- ------ --- -------- ----- -----
Adj.
EBITDA $ 9,468 $ 4,226 $ (14,330) 124% N/A
---------- ---- ------ --- ------ --- -------- ----- -----
Pro Forma Revenue
------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenue $ 86,876 N/A N/A N/A N/A
---------- ---- ------ --- ------ --- -------- ----- -----
As Reported
------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenue $ 76,064 $ 48,703 $ 23,172 56% 228%
---------- ---- ------ --- ------ --- -------- ----- -----
Gross
Profit $ 30,368 $ 17,231 $ 5,489 76% 453%
---------- ---- ------ --- ------ --- -------- ----- -----
Adj.
EBITDA $ 8,303 $ 3,077 $ (13,911) 170% N/A
---------- ---- ------ --- ------ --- -------- ----- -----
Cash $ 61,111 $ 42,142 $ 47,464 45% 29%
---------- ---- ------ --- ------ --- -------- ----- -----


Full Year 2020 Financial Highlights(2) (in $ thousands, excl. margin
items)

FY 2020 FY 2019 % YoY
-------------------------- ----------------- ---------------- -------
Combined Results
-------------------------- ----------------- --- ----------- -------
Combined Revenue $ 197,909 $ 78,811 151%
-------------------------- ---- ----------- --- ----------- -----
Combined Adj. Gross
Profit(3) $ 76,109 $ 21,137 260%
-------------------------- ---- ----------- --- ----------- -----
Combined Adj. EBITDA $ (905) $ (47,355) 98%
-------------------------- ---- ----------- --- ----------- -----
Pro Forma Revenue
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenue $ 290,290 N/A N/A
-------------------------- ---- ----------- --- ----------- -----
As Reported
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenue $ 179,503 $ 77,459 132%
-------------------------- ---- ----------- --- ----------- -----
Gross Profit $ 65,772 $ 20,609 219%
-------------------------- ---- ----------- --- ----------- -----
Adj. EBITDA $ (4,138) $ (46,936) 91%
-------------------------- ---- ----------- --- ----------- -----


2021 Outlook
Metric Pro Forma
------------------------------- -------------
Combined Revenue $500M - $530M
-------------------------------- -------------
Combined Adjusted Gross Margin 47%+
-------------------------------- -------------
Combined Adjusted EBITDA $95M - $105M

Columbia Care's ( CCHWF ) pro forma 2021 outlook assumes the Company's pending acquisition of Green Leaf Medical closes in the 3(rd) quarter but does not include any contribution from future acquisitions nor does it assume any changes in the regulatory environment in markets where Columbia Care ( CCHWF ) currently operates, such as the pending adult-use program in New Jersey. This also excludes markets where a conversion from medical only to adult use is under consideration by the Governor and/or legislature, such as New York and Virginia. See "Caution Concerning Forward-Looking Statements" below for further discussion.

Conference Call and Webcast Details

The Company will host a conference call on Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 8:00 a.m. ET to discuss its full financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year 2020.

To access the live conference call via telephone, please dial 1-877-407-8914 (US Callers) or 1-201-493-6795 (international callers). A live audio webcast of the call will also be available in the Investor Relations section of the Company's website at https://ir.col-care.com/ or at https://78449.themediaframe.com/dataconf/productusers/colc/ mediaframe/43954/indexl.html.

A replay of the audio webcast will be available in the Investor Relations section of the Company's website approximately 2 hours after completion of the call and will be archived for 30 days.

About Columbia Care ( CCHWF )

Columbia Care ( CCHWF ) is one of the largest and most experienced cultivators, manufacturers and providers of medical and adult use cannabis products and related services with licenses in 18 US jurisdictions and the EU. Columbia Care ( CCHWF ) currently operates 108 facilities(4) including 81 dispensaries and 27 cultivation and manufacturing facilities. Columbia Care ( CCHWF ) is one of the original providers of medical cannabis in the United States, and continues to deliver an industry-leading, patient-centered medicinal cannabis operation that has quickly expanded into the adult use market as a premier operator.

The company currently offers products spanning flower, edibles, oils, and tablets, and manufactures popular brands including Seed & Strain, Amber and Platinum Label CBD. With more than four million sales transactions since its inception in 2012, Columbia Care ( CCHWF ) is known for setting the standard for compassion, professionalism, quality, care, and innovation in the rapidly expanding cannabis industry. For more information on Columbia Care ( CCHWF ), please visit www.col- care.com.

[JohnCM]

ADDED $7.168

Columbia Care (CCHWF)

[JohnCM]

Columbia Care: No Longer A Small Operator

Mar. 05, 2021

Summary

Columbia Care provided solid '21 revenue and EBITDA targets.

After the Green Leaf Medical deal closes, the MSO is poised for recreational cannabis approvals in key Mid-Atlantic states.

The stock is cheap at only 4x '21 sales targets.

The U.S. multi-state operator (MSO) field has been on fire in the last few months as the Democrat victory signaled a move toward federal cananbis legalization in the U.S. Despite the large gains by Columbia Care (OTCQX:CCHWF), the stock has still unperformed other cannabis stocks. My investment thesis remains bullish on the stock as the MSO provides a strong outlook for 2021 without even factoring in recreational cannabis sales in several key states.

Booming Business

Along with releasing preliminary Q4 numbers, Columbia Care provided 2021 guidance. The company plans to report Q4 revenues of $81.8 million with positive EBITDA, but the real story is the 2021 guidance and maybe what isn't included in these numbers.

Columbia Care misses on revenue
Mar. 16, 2021 7:04 AM ET Columbia Care Inc. (CCHWF)By: Gaurav Batavia, SA News Editor 14 Comments
Columbia Care (OTCQX:CCHWF): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.21.
Revenue of $81.7M (+233.2% Y/Y) misses by $10.58M. (??????)

Columbia Care guided to 2021 revenues of $515 million at the midpoint which is technically below analyst estimates at $535 million. The amount includes some amount for Green Leaf Medical targeted at closing in Q3, but the forecast doesn't include any revenues for states moving to recreational such as the pending adult-use program in New Jersey.

The amazing part is that a once relatively small MSO is now set to top $500 million in annual revenues before even fully including annual revenues from the largest deal. Guidance doesn't even include the huge upside potential from the pending launch of New Jersey.

Naturally, the amount doesn't include any revenues for adult use in Virginia considering the state won't allow recreational cannabis until 2024, but this means that Columbia Care has easy revenue upside in a few years. Other recreational approvals in New York and Pennsylvania add more revenue potential to the long-term story.

The analyst revenue target for 2022 of $778 million is already rather large, but more importantly the adjusted EBITDA margins are starting to impress considering Columbia Care had a loss in 2020. The pro-forma EBITDA profits of $12 million in Q4 will nicely turn into 20% margins this year.

Deep Value

The biggest issue with the MSOs are valuing the stocks as equity offerings and acquisitions constantly alter the outstanding shares. Not to mention, quarterly results aren't reported until months after the quarters close leaving a substantial period where share counts aren't included in the last reported financial results.

In the last two months, Columbia Care has issued 3.22 million shares at C$9.00 and 16.15 million shares at C$8.05 to raise ~C$160 million.

The Green Leaf Medical deal involves a cash payment of $45.0 million and the issuance of 43.9 million shares to account for the $195.0 million portion of the transaction. Of course, those shares won't be in the balance until the deal closes in the expected Q3 timeline.

The share dilution is very appealing considering Green Leaf Medical was bought for 4.8x '21 adjusted EBITDA targets. The $240 million deal value suggests an impressive adjusted EBITDA target of $50 million. The complete revenue number isn't included in the 2021 guidance considering the closing date is sometime in Q3.

The company becomes a leader in Mid-Atlantic states such as Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Columbia Care will have scale in all these states awaiting recreational cannabis approvals in the next few years.

The Project Cannabis deal closed in December and cost the company $69 million. The deal had similar attractive multiples at only ~6.7x 2020 adjusted EBITDA.

Despite all of these positives, Columbia Care hasn't even seen the stock outperform other cannabis stocks. A big discrepancy still exists between how some of the Canadian LPs traded based on the excitement surround U.S. cannabis legalization that will benefit the U.S. MSOs far more. Tilray (TLRY) is still up 150% in the last three months compared to only 37% from Columbia Care while a larger MSO like Trulieve Cannabis (OTCQX:TCNNF) is up nearly 50%.

The stock trades with a market valuation of $2.25 billion now based on 307 million shares outstanding back in November and the additional shares issued for stock offerings and acquisitions. The amount includes up to 19 million warrants outstanding as of the end of Q3 that will come with a solid boost to the cash balance.

Once closed, the Green Leaf Medical deal will add another 43.9 million shares to the balance bringing the company to ~380 million shares outstanding, but the deal brings accretive adjusted EBITDA to the mix.

Takeaway

The key investor takeaway is that the stock trades at only 4x updated 2021 revenue guidance. The ability of the MSO to make acquisitions have added value to the stock generally inline with the recent rally.

Columbia Care remains an exceptionally cheap MSO positioned for recreational cannabis sales in key Mid-Atlantic states making the stock attractive to outside buyers once cannabis is federally permissible in the U.S.