Replies to post #336686 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

corporal, I will split the answer in two parts.

Bio-Markers, mile-stones within 12 months, profits (the 15+%) 3 years because there are only profits when all costs are covered and a production line for the test-packs is set up.

This answer is under the reserve of CDMO itself being a selected partner for manufacturing, but then we are not talking about the profits you are asking about (related to IP, mile-stones, etc), but of CDMO core business activities. It is not 100% clear to me how much OncXerna must use CDMO as a manufacturer or is committed to use if not obligated.

Bavi, that is another story. We know you have at least 2 years for a registrational trial, even when combining with a BP product as Yervoy or Keytruda. For Merck the combination will not be urgent as long as they lead. So we may see mile stones at the successful completion of a first registrational clinical trial. 24 months would be a record, 36 will be more realistic.

Then before profits are at order i think an extra two years must be added. The set-up of a FDA APPROAVED production line for the molecule (if not produced with CDMO) alone will take a year. And we know there are often long interval period for FDA processing. With events as COVID many COVID related drugs/vaccines have been prioritized and others delayed. That can happen again.

So conclusion, yes 5y+ for Bavi profits, possible 3+ years for Beta Body profits. Milestones BB as soon as 12 months, Bavi at the earliest 24 months, more likely 36.

[vinmantoo]

CDMO is rising due to its value as a CDMO. Enjoy the rise but stay grounded in reality. Bavi is pipe dream. Even if you want to fantasize that it is a magic cure for cancer, you have to ask when does the patent protection end? There can't be many years left right NOW, let alone in 5-10 years down the road when some fantasy Bavi phase II & phase III trials set up, completed then subject their data for approval.