Replies to post #243 on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[DewDiligence]

>…so basically i am agreeing with you 100%, except your reaction to the jan 9th conference specifically i found curious, as your very well founded misgiving re timing of phase III was known (more or less save maybe one quarter) before this conference.<

I don’t like continually moving targets and I think the newly-disclosed delay ought to be evaluated in the context of the 12-15 month cumulative delay. Management’s credibility is at issue here.

A few sell-side analysts have asserted that the NM283 program has no commercial value and will ultimately be dropped. I don’t agree with this view; however, the more times the timeline is incrementally delayed, the more likely it is that these analysts are right.

[flatlander_60048]

The NVS Investor pipeline update in Nov suggests that NM283 would not be filed until 2010 or later.

http://www.novartis.com/downloads_new/investors/pipeline/Planned_filling_2007_to_2010.ppt#1

This seems to have been at least a year later than the timeframe alluded to by Doug Dietrich at the investor lunch (Slide 13). What changed in the month following the investor lunch to push back the anticipated filing date. During the NVS pipeline conference I believe albuferon was described as the company's stongest treatment candidate (not an exact quote). Is it likely that NM283 is being considered primarily for use in combination with protese inhibitors or albuferon, thus the change in the anticipated filing dates?

I know you guys are pretty sharp on this subject, so please excuse me if these questions are way off base or easily explained.

Also, does anyone have more information on the senior VP who exited Idenix today?

Thanks
FL