Replies to post #236207 on Biotech Values

[biocqr]

I started cutting back when I saw IBB was up 200% from the March low. The exuberance for bios is over the top IMO.

Chart...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eXRGbte0/

edit - IBB is up 200% of the move from the Feb high to March low.

[bladerunner1717]

Dewo,

I'd be cautious with a statement like this:

I'm leery of the market moving forward, and bios in particular in advance of the Jan special election since a democratic controlled senate poses more risks wrt drug pricing.

The biotech centers are in New York, Massachusetts and California, all Democratic strongholds. I'm not certain that you can count on Democratic Senators from those states to be so supportive of severe drug price restrictions.

There's a lot of money on the sidelines and my sense is that as we move forward with the COVID vaccines and better treatment for COVID, the markets will respond very positively as the overall economy recovers. And getting rid of Trump should stabilize the markets. All this holds as well for the global economy. Also, Biden will push hard for an increased stimulus package, which Mr. Market loves to see. And all this in a low interest rate environment. It might be time to party. LOL

Bladerunner

[xavierprivas]

Most of my money is in pipeline operators like ENB, WMB, KMI where I collect around 11% dividend. It will be
at least a few years until oil price goes below $30 a barrel again. Better than bonds anyway.

As for biotech, I have a small position in CMRX where they have a smallpox vaccine developed under BARDA contract that gets a priority
review with FDA with PDUFA April 7 2021. Guarantee revenue and profit for a few years with a stockpile agreement.

Also I have OCUL eye implant. Potential indication is wet AMD, dry eye. Small position also.

[jbog]

I'm leery of the market moving forward,

Gee I looked at the market this weekend any came to the conclusion it is on the frothy side but really it's not out of line.

What is out of line is the number such as Dow 29K or NAZ 12.4K, those numbers are astonishing, but really not expensive.

What the question is what 29,400 really mean. 29,400 dollars? Well a quick look at history will tell me what a dollar is.

Lets look at it this way, around ten years ago the top 500 companies on the stock market had a valuation of $15.6 Trillion dollars. Today that valuation is closer to $29.0 Trillion.

Ten years ago I could have bought the top 500 Companies for 13.86 Bil ounces of gold. Today I could buy the Top 500 Companies for 15.7 Bil ounces.

Not out of line if you considering what happened to the interest environment and Government spending.

[zipjet]

I think BMY fits in your boring category.

[vinmantoo]

There are some bios like RVNC (aesthetic), ENTA (Hep C tx is cheap), FGEN (Roxa likely cheaper on healthcare system than epo - even biosimilar) that have lower risk when it comes to this, and in general I think Biden is less apt to be aggressive on the drug pricing front (war on cancer) esp on the heels of a pandemic.

I agree about ENTA and bought some more at just over $41 the other day.