"Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War"
More than other kinds of aid, to get out from under China’s thumb, the continent will need debt financing and private investment.
By Theodore Murphy | November 12, 2020, 5:11 PM
Kenyan daily newspapers with the headlines “Donald Trump fired” and “Biden wins” in Nairobi on Nov. 8. Simon Maina/AFP/Getty Images
As U.S. President-elect Joe Biden starts to formulate his foreign policies, the list of regions and issues needing immediate attention is already long. But one that should stand out is Africa’s debt. Tipped into crisis territory by the economic knock-on effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it threatens to push the region further into China’s hands.
Even before the pandemic hit, many African countries had enormous debt burdens, which grew heavier this spring when the value of their currencies fell relative to the foreign currencies in which the debt was denominated. At the same time, the income necessary to make regular interest payments on the debt dried up. Commodity-dependent African economies like Angola and Nigeria rely on oil; demand had already been slumping since 2015, and the sectors were hit again this year as global demand plummeted because of the COVID-driven economic downturn. Those more service-oriented African countries not dependent on commodities fared no better, since tourism and foreign remittances cratered as well.
Facing an untenable situation, in March, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wrote an open letter .. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/covid-19-ethiopia-premier-seeks-debt-relief-for-africa/1777564 .. with a plea for help. He called for a two-year moratorium on debt repayments: from all creditors (bilateral, multilateral, and private) and for all African countries (not just the poorest). With the continent spending about 2 percent of its GDP just servicing its debt, he pointed out, there was little funding left to direct toward the pandemic response, for which he also requested an additional $150 billion in emergency financial assistance.
In the run-up to this spring’s G-20 meeting, his call was picked up by European and African leaders. But the initiative that emerged from the G20—the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI)—covered only bilateral debt (not all debt), only through the end of 2020 (not for two years), and only for the poorest African economies (not all of them). A proposal to grant IMF Special Drawing Rights, which would have given the countries access to additional financing, also faltered .. https://g20.org/en/media/Documents/G20_FMCBG_Communiqu%C3%A9_EN%20(2).pdf . The United States, it appears, had blocked such a measure since the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) would have been available to all countries—benefiting friend and foe alike including China, Iran, and Russia. SDRs would have been game changing. Last employed in response to the 2009 global financial crisis .. https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/14/51/Special-Drawing-Right-SDR .. (and backed by the Obama administration at that time), they offered far more in terms of fiscal breathing space—in the form of an injection of liquidity—than the DSSI, which just put a temporary hold on debt repayments.
Despite hopes that the DSSI would be extended for longer, in October it was renewed again for only another six months. G20 members sympathetic to Africa’s plight argue that the short time horizon is an attempt to improve the measure before locking it in over a longer period. Namely, they want to secure the full participation of China and private creditors who between them hold two-thirds of Africa’s debt. Failing to secure their buy-in risks relief intended for the pandemic response going instead to service Africa’s debt to China and private creditors.
==========
Historically, African debt was principally held in the West. But today, China is a major player. At $143 billion, it has 20 percent of all African debt on its books. The remainder is split between the major multilateral international financial institutions, like the IMF and World Bank (which together hold 35 percent), and the private sector (32 percent).
In some ways, those figures represent a success—especially the diversification into that third sector, private credit. Justifiably viewed as a hard-won achievement, private investment has opened up another major source of development financing. Yet private debt falls outside of the DSSI, and some African countries, including Kenya, feared that accepting the agreement would lead private creditors to downgrade their credit ratings. They have therefore opted out of the DSSI. In the long run, they hope, doing so will preserve their access to private capital. But in the short term, it represents a difficult fiscal choice.
And then, of course, there is China to consider. To the extent that it, like the private sector, isn’t playing along fully with the DSSI, China is left with influence to try to renegotiate the debt it holds on its own terms. And the question is not whether Beijing will renegotiate if asked. The question is what it will want in return. Arguably, it views advancing its global footprint as more valuable than immediate debt repayment.
The West should sit up and pay attention to this issue. Not out of charity, but rather because the debt issue has exposed in dramatic fashion the degree to which it has failed to create alternatives to China’s model merging state power and the private sector. This represents both a geopolitical loss and a real loss for Western business who might otherwise want to invest on the continent.
So what can be done? For now, efforts are underway to improve the DSSI to include the private sector and increase Chinese transparency and full participation .. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1135 . Failing that, the Western powers could up the ante: condition further DSSI assistance on recipient countries entering an IMF program, which would give the IMF a say into how countries manage their debt obligations. But entering an IMF program would also imperil African countries’ future access to private credit markets, so it would serve as a stick of last resort.
This situation highlights the role that the West needs to play in providing alternatives to Africa in financing and investment. Debt relief now is firefighting. Financing and private investment is a longer-term readjustment of the asymmetry with China. In Europe, there are stirrings in this direction. Working with the EU and others, France has called for a heads-of-state meeting slated for May 2021, with the aim of generating alternative financing and private investment mechanisms for Africa. President Emmanuel Macron has pointed out .. https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20201003-france-s-macron-calls-for-fairer-financing-rules-for-african-economy-oecd-bpifrance-kenyatta-vinci .. that the OECD rules have made Europe unable to compete in Africa on a level playing field against those—China—that do not abide by it.
In the United States, meanwhile, a Biden administration offers the opportunity to revisit the key SDR issue. Already supported by the overwhelming majority of U.S. allies, Biden could correct Trump’s SDR veto and unlock a major source of relief.
Theodore Murphy is Director of the Africa Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Anxiety in Australia as conflict ravages Tigray region of Ethiopia
"Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War "Mali’s President Exits After Being Arrested in Military Coup "Civilian deaths and atrocities escalate as chaos builds in Sahel "Esper says ‘no decisions’ have been finalized on AFRICOM changes "AFRICOM: Wrong for Liberia, Disastrous for Africa"""" "
By Max Walden
Posted Yesterday at 5:40am, updated Yesterday at 8:34am
The UN is expressing concern that the conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region could lead to war crimes and genocide. (Reuters: Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah)
As a situation described by the United Nations as a "full-scale humanitarian crisis" unfolds in Ethiopia's Tigray region, members of the community say at least 50 Australians are stuck in the conflict zone.
Key points:
* Members of the Ethiopian community in Melbourne have told the ABC at least 50 Australians are stuck in the Tigray region
* Many others are stuck in other parts of the country, with limited travel options due to COVID-19
* Both sides of the conflict have been accused of deliberately killing civilians
But the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which is refusing to give up its rule of the northern region, says rebel forces are digging trenches and standing firm.
"People have [lost] connections with their families now for 19 days," said Saba Alemayoh, a Tigrayan woman from Melbourne.
"We're talking about uncles, and cousins, and daughters."
The UN has warned of possible war crimes, including the mass killing of civilians, in the Tigray region. Melbourne Tigray woman Saba Alemayoh smiles at the camera
[...]
From Nobel Peace Prize winner to alleged war criminal
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's election in 2018 brought an end to 27 years of Tigray-dominated rule at the national level in Ethiopia. (AP)
But now he's encouraging Ethiopians to "stand for the honour" of the country's military as it launches airstrikes on the Tigray region, with missiles fired at Eritrea's capital Asmara during the fighting.
"There were so many of us speaking out against his Nobel Peace Prize reception because we were saying 'all of this is false'," said Manal Younus, who was born in Eritrea and lives in Adelaide.
"But the world applauded him, they celebrated him, and they made him invincible."
She told the ABC the conflict was "terrifying" for Eritreans, as "we're already part of the war … we have to expect to be attacked from Tigray".
[...]
"I declare that we Ethiopians should unite and we will do all we can to shame and destroy this force," Mr Abiy said in early November, referring to the Tigray People's Liberation Front — the ruling party in the Tigray region.
The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for 27 years until the election of Mr Abiy in 2018.
"Restricted access and the ongoing communication blackout have left an estimated 2.3 million children in need of humanitarian assistance and out of reach," Henrietta Fore, executive director of UNICEF told reporters last week.
Ms Alemayoh said "we're not asking for any outcome that favours either party", just a stop to the bloodshed.
[...]
The UN refugee agency says 4,000 women, men and children have been fleeing into Sudan — a country already home to nearly 1 million refugees — every day since early November.
The agency is planning for a total of 200,000 people to end up there.
[...]
Members of the Ethiopian community in Australia have collected the details of some 50 Australians thought to be in the Tigray region.
They want the Federal Government to do more to ensure the safety of Australians stuck in Ethiopia.
Australian NGOs assisted Ethiopia during severe famine in the mid-1980s. (Supplied: World Vision/Steve Reynolds)
This includes urging the Ethiopian Government to lift the telecommunications blackout in Tigray so that they are able to contact loved ones.
"We're not dual citizens. All these people are just Australian citizens," Ms Alemayoh said.
The Federal Government last month announced eight charter flights would be repatriating some 5,000 Australians stuck in the UK, India and South Africa before March next year.
"Our families give up any kind of official connection to our home countries to be Australian," Ms Zewdie said.
"When something like this goes down, what do we need to do to be seen as Australians?"
Sudan crisis explained: What’s behind the latest fighting and how it fits nation’s troubled past
"Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War "Mali’s President Exits After Being Arrested in Military Coup "Civilian deaths and atrocities escalate as chaos builds in Sahel "Esper says ‘no decisions’ have been finalized on AFRICOM changes "AFRICOM: Wrong for Liberia, Disastrous for Africa""""" .. add today a link to that last one .. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59092358
Published: April 17, 2023 5.52pm EDT
Author Christopher Tounsel Associate Professor of History, University of Washington
Disclosure statement Christopher Tounsel has previously received funding from the Council of American Overseas Research Centers, the Institute for Citizens & Scholars, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, Social Science Research Council, the Doris G. Quinn Foundation, the University of Michigan, the Pennsylvania State University, Macalester College, and the University of Washington.
Partners University of Washington University of Washington provides funding as a member of The Conversation US.
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Days of violence in Sudan have resulted in the deaths of at least 180 people, with many more left wounded.
The fighting represents the latest crisis in the North African nation, which has contended with numerous coups and periods of civil strife since becoming independent in 1956.
The Conversation asked Christopher Tounsel .. https://history.washington.edu/people/christopher-tounsel , a Sudan specialist and interim director of the University of Washington’s African Studies Program, to explain the reasons behind the violence and what it means for the chances of democracy being restored in Sudan.
Since a coup in the country in 2021, which ended a transitional government put in place after the fall of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir .. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-16010445 .. two years earlier, Sudan has been run by the army, with coup leader General Abdel-Fattah Burhan as de facto ruler.
IMAGE - map
The RSF, led by General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo – who is generally known by the name Hemedti – has worked alongside the Sudanese army to help keep the military in power.
Following Bashir’s ouster, the political transition was supposed to result in elections by the end of 2023, with Burhan promising a transition to civilian rule. But it appears that neither Burhan nor Dagalo has any intention of relinquishing power. Moreover, they are locked in a power struggle that turned violent on April 15 .. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/4/15/sudan-unrest-live-news-explosions-shooting-rock-khartoum , 2023.
Since then, members of the RSF and the Sudanese army have engaged in gunfights in the capital, Khartoum, as well as elsewhere in the country. Over the course of three days, the violence has spiraled.
The recent background to the violence was a disagreement over how RSF paramilitaries should be incorporated into the Sudanese army. Tensions boiled over after the RSF started deploying members around the country and in Khartoum without the expressed permission of the army.
But in reality, the violence has been brewing for a while in Sudan, with concern over the RSF seeking to control more of the country’s economic assets .. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48987901 , notably its gold mines.
The developments in Sudan over the last few days are not good for the stability of the nation or its prospects for any transition to democratic rule.
While then-Sudanese President Bashir was the face of the violence against people in Darfur – and was later indicted on crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court – the Janjaweed is also held responsible by the ICC for alleged acts of genocide. While they were doing so, Dagalo was rising up the ranks.
As head of the RSF, Dagalo has faced accusations of overseeing the bloody crackdown of pro-democracy activists, including the massacre of 120 protesters in 2019.
The actions of Burhan, similarly, have seen the military leader heavily criticized by human rights groups. As the head of the army in power and the country’s de facto head of government for the last two years, he oversaw a crackdown of pro-democracy activists.
One can certainly interpret both men to be obstacles to any chance of Sudan transitioning to civilian democracy. But this is first and foremost a personal power struggle.
To use an African proverb, “When the elephants fight, it is the grass that gets trampled.”
So this is about power rather than ideology?
In my opinion, very much so.
We are not talking about two men, or factions, with ideological differences over the future direction of the country. This cannot be framed as a left-wing versus right-wing thing, or about warring political parties. Nor is this a geo-religious conflict – pitting a majority Muslim North against a Christian South .. https://theconversation.com/as-south-sudan-turns-10-questions-over-the-role-of-the-church-emerge-amid-anti-clerical-violence-164018 . And it isn’t racialized violence in the same way that the Darfur conflict was, with the self-identified Arab Janajaweed killing Black people.
One thing that is concerning about the longer dynamics at play in Sudan is the violence now forms part of a history that fits the trope of the “failed African nation.”
Sudan has, to my knowledge, had more coups than any other African nation. Since gaining independence from the U.K. in 1956, there have been coups in 1958, 1969, 1985, 1989, 2019 and 2021.
When Bashir was deposed in 2019, it was shocking to many observers – myself included – who assumed he would die in power, or that his rule would end only by assassination.
As striking as the recent violence is now, in many ways what is playing out is not unusual in the context of Sudan’s history.
The army has long been at the center of political transitions in Sudan. And resistance to civilian rule has been more than less the norm since independence in 1956 .. https://countrystudies.us/sudan/20.htm .
[Insert: Sounds somewhat as the situation in Pakistan: Pakistan’s Military Is Here to Stay [...]Prime ministers from both the PML and PPP have been ousted from office multiple times by the Pakistani military, which routinely influences Pakistan’s superior judiciary. Supreme Court judges then often provide legal cover for otherwise undemocratic and unconstitutional actions initiated by generals. The Supreme Court endorsed Pakistan’s four military coups in 1958, 1969, 1977, and 1999, as well as accepted the generals’ right to suspend the constitution under its so-called doctrine of necessity. On other occasions, the military orchestrated palace coups in 1990, 1993, and 1996, resulting in dismissal of elected prime ministers by the president and with the support of the Supreme Court. In 2012 and 2017, prime ministers were removed from office at the behest of the military through direct intervention by the Supreme Court. Together, the Pakistani military and judiciary have never allowed a PML or PPP prime minister to stay in office for the full five-year term of parliament. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171466701]
There doesn’t appears to be an easy route to a short-term solution, and what makes it tougher is that you have two powerful men, both with a military at their disposal, fighting each other for power that neither seem prepared to relinquish.
The concern is that the fighting might escalate and destabilize the region, jeopardizing Sudan’s relations with its neighbors. Chad, which borders Sudan to the west, has already closed its border with Sudan. Meanwhile, a couple of Egyptian soldiers were captured in northern Sudan while violence was happening in Khartoum. Ethiopia, Sudan’s neighbor to the east, is still reeling from a two-year war in the Tigray region. And the spread of unrest in Sudan will be a concern to those watching an uneasy peace deal in South Sudan – which gained independence from Sudan in 2011 and has been beset by ethnic fighting ever since.
As such, the stakes in the current unrest could go beyond the immediate future of Burhan, Dagalo and even the Sudanese nation. The stability of the region could also be out at risk.
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