Replies to post #354237 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

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US elections 2020: Fact-checking Trump on crime in Democratic-run cities

"Trump says crime and violence is "a party issue." Mike Baker Seattle Bureau Chief
This story explores the rising murder numbers. Murders are up 29 percent in Democrat-led cities and up 26 percent in cities with a Republican mayor.
Murders Are Rising. Blaming a Party Doesn’t Add Up."

By Christopher Giles
BBC Reality Check
3 September 2020


Getty Images

President Donald Trump is blaming Democratic mayors for unrest across American cities in his bid to make law and order a central part of his re-election campaign.

Mr Trump has repeatedly said that the 10 most dangerous cities in the US are all run by Democrats.
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The Ten Most Dangerous Cities in the U.S. are ALL run by Democrats, and this has gone on for DECADES!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 27, 2020 ..

The Ten Most Dangerous Cities in the U.S. are ALL run by Democrats, and this has gone on for DECADES!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 27, 2020

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The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. View original tweet on Twitter ..

The Ten Most Dangerous Cities in the U.S. are ALL run by Democrats, and this has gone on for DECADES!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 27, 2020

We asked The White House press office what the president's data source was for his claim, and they directed us to a Washington Post fact-check article .. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/25/trump-keeps-claiming-that-most-dangerous-cities-america-are-all-run-by-democrats-they-arent/ .. on crime in cities.

That article uses Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) crime data from the first half of 2019 - the most recent official data source on US cities with populations over 100,000.



The top 10 cities for overall violent crime, which includes major urban areas New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, are all run by Democrats.

The Republican-run city with the highest number of cases of violent crime is Jacksonville in Florida, which is 17th on the FBI list.

However, if we look at violent crime cases per 10,000 people, Mr Trump's claim isn't quite correct.



Springfield in Missouri is run by an independent mayor. The rest, though, have Democratic administrations.

Most large cities in America, however, are run by Democrats.

As of September 2020, the top 100 largest US cities are run by 64 Democrats, 28 Republicans, three independents and four non-partisans.

Mr Trump has blamed Democrats for high rates of violent crime in cities they control.

But the FBI has warned against using its statistics .. https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/cius-summary .. in a way which ranks cities and oversimplifies what causes crime.

"These rough rankings provide no insight into the numerous variables that mould crime in a particular town, city, county, state, tribal area, or region," it says on its website.

"Consequently, they lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting communities and their residents."



Mr Trump has also said that Democratic-run cities are "rampant with crime", but some of the fastest increases in murder rates are in Republican-run cities.

Data from local police departments does show stark increases in Democratic-run Chicago and New York. But that's also a trend seen in some Republican-run metropolitan areas.

Lexington in Kentucky, a city of over 300,000 people, has seen 84.6% increase in murders when compared with the same period in 2019, for example.

Mr Trump has not talked about these places.
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Here is the YTD % change in murder for cities with a Republican mayor (and available data).

Murder is up 26% in these cities YTD which is identical to the change in all big cities. Changes in murder trends don't care about the city executive's party affiliation. pic.twitter.com/1bpzxjBBV8 ..
https://t.co/1bpzxjBBV8
— Jeff Asher (@Crimealytics) August 28, 2020
https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1299336630445264897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. View original tweet on Twitter ..
https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1299336630445264897

"Murder is up about 25% nationally including nearly identical change in Democratic and Republican-run cities," says US crime analyst Jeff Asher.

"I think the more salient point is that cities across the country, regardless of the mayor's party, are seeing an alarming increase in murder nationally this year," he adds.

Individual years can fluctuate but violent crime across the US has been on a downward trend .. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53525440 .. since the 1990s.

* Does Trump have the right to send in federal forces?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52893540

* Donald Trump's convention speech fact-checked
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53922706

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53991722

SHIT CONIX, An overseas company commenting on American affairs.

See also:

Trump’s speech that ‘incited’ Capitol violence: Full transcript
It's simple: "... American businesses are not exercising their corporate veto power over some controversial-but-ordinary presidential behavior. The facts on the ground are straightforward: A lame-duck president provoked a violent rebellion against the Capitol that left several people dead. Even judged against the heightened bar of Trump’s abnormal presidency, this moment is surpassingly awful and unusual. It deserves an equally unusual response, and it got one."
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160873379

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CORRECTION: conix note: Murders Are Rising. Blaming a Party Doesn’t Add Up.

The data reveals a different picture than the party-driven explanation President Trump and the Department of Justice have offered.

By Jeff Asher
Sept. 28, 2020

[...]

Murder is up 29 percent in Democrat-led cities in the sample and up 26 percent in cities with a Republican mayor relative to the same time frame in 2019, and five of the 13 cities on pace for record-high murder counts have Republican mayors.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/upshot/murders-2020-election-debate.html

I just discovered the link in the other looks to be the wrong one.