Replies to post #379 on Justa's Dive Bar

[Justa Werkenstiff]

C: The XAU is often easier to understand technically. Also, I have found that by looking at the XAU that it often leads the HUI technically. Regardless, a look at both serves as confirmation for the other. Also, while upside on the Xau may be limited it works the other way on the downside with the HUI and the juniors more prone to cliff dives during a correction.

[MathProf]

Chainik,

Thanks much for your comments (and Justa's, as always). I did add to my GDX, so I am paying attention to all the knowledge so generously shared by the impressive folks here, in the Dive.

Eventually, my main problem is always selling. I don't understand how you experts trade in and out and still do well, in spite of costs and taxes. Note that I am in high cost CA, where there is no capital gains tax rate and the marginal dollar pays 9.3 percent taxes.

Model problem: trade in and out on GDX, based on your evaluations of shorter term ups and downs OR buy and hold, based on your opinion that longer term gold will do very well. How do you compute or estimate the efficacy of the two approaches?

MP