Replies to post #160896 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[langostino]

wrong answer greg

by your own reasoning the answer is "yes and no", not "No."

Yes, the majority of upgrading has been done along the way, but no it hasn't kept pace and there is still some "catch up" to do.

You're kidding yourself if you think we could buy more PCs in 2002 than 1999 but somehow be dramatically behind.

I agree there's a tailwind created by the need for some "catch up", but there isn't going to be some kind of boom proportional to 1999-2000 as we "replace" those machines on a 1:1 basis.

[blimfark]

RE: INTC - I work in the I/T group for a big insurance company. We have several thousand employees in NJ and have deferred spending on desktop and laptop replacements which would normally be on a 3 or 4 year cycle. We have deferred those upgrades for the last 2 or 3 years, but are now being forced to upgrade many of our desktops/laptops because of a migration to Windows XP Professional. Our older hardware will not run XP Pro. I suspect Mr Softie is pressuring it's corporate clients to move on up to XP by adding new features and dropping support/increasing maintenance pricing on older NT licenses. So that being said and Mr Softie churning the waters, I believe that much of this pent up demand has to start being satisfied and that 4Q03 and FY04 will be strong. I'm hoping for a nice pop in INTC in the morning. Went long and deep this afternoon and would like to close half my position shortly after open.