The disconnect here is this: If the synthetic morphine can have peak
sales of $1.5 billion per year, the takeover value (in theory) would
be closer to $4.5 - $6.5 billion! At $3.60 the market cap is under
$400 million. In theory, the BO value would be 11X or more the $3.60!
For investors willing to hold this for an extended period there could
be a substantial payoff should Pfizer decide to acquire TRVN now, since
they are manufacturing the product already. The longer Pfizer waits
the more expensive this may become. This little company is now in the
"big leagues" of drug development. Even a $2 billion takeout now would
be 5x the $3.60 or $18 a share. From that perspective this is still
cheap! And all based on its only approved drug with zero value for
everything else Trevena has.
So sad and pathetic to watch the trading activity on Friday with
no doubt the stock being ripped away from many small investors...
Very sad, indeed.
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