An interesting article, but it does not take into account a major trend, first manufacturing in the united states is in decline, thus the number of workers required to create a dollar of GDP is declining as well, declining faster than the expected decline in the workforce. You see that in two major numbers, Manufacturing is now about half of GDP than it was let say in the 1970 (from memory, about 11% of GDP now vs about 20% in the early 70'.) The productivity increase factor (one cause for the temporary deflation or mini deflation we have) is also greater than the shortage expected from demographic shifts. What will happens by hook ot by crook is that the educational level of the new generation of workers will increase slowly, to match the requirement of a more educated work force. Another trend that we are going to see will be the contraction of the hierarchy in corporations (hierarchy that wasted "white collar" workers), and thus the same dollar of GDP will require less "white collar" workers. Blue collar workers (skilled or less skilled) "head count" will also decline due to the secular trend of decreasing manufacturing here and switching of that to overseas market. Some people view this with alarm, and all I can say is look at historical trends in agriculture over the first half of the last century, that is what is happening in manufacturing in the second half of the last century (and the beginning of this century), and there is nothing wrong with that either. Someone posted this morning an interesting trend in machine tools, it looks alarming, but it is only a reflection of an economy shifting from "Brawn power" to "Brain power".
What is problematic is only the transition (a period as we are now in), but that will "pass" as well.
I think I have preached this sermon often enough on this thread. (g).
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