Replies to post #138882 on Vystar Corp (VYST)

[Jdizzy]

Thanks for the math. However, PE of 15 implies a lot of growth. COVID-19 is a temporary problem. I would assume P/E of 15 for 50 unit production math. At 1500 unit production I think a PE of 2 is fair because they won’t be able to sell that many units for an extended period of time. In other words fair value is around .07-.30 any way you look at it. Anything above 0.10 is very high risk and should be sold. Well, I think 0.05 is high risk.

[Catpole]

Well done Stervc! A complete analysis of the RX3000. And don’t forget the other possible revenue streams. Thanks for your detailed DD.

[12Retyr]

Incredible work, Sterling. Thanks for your analysis.

[Renegades17]

I came up with similar numbers

The arithmetic is simple, the challenge is determining the right multiple and time required to ramp to the max production of 1500 units. Obviously, if they do produce 1500 units/week, that leads to some very big numbers in terms of revenue and profit (and they would likely generate greater than 25% net margin assuming some operating leverage). The margins on filters are likely to be significantly above the purifier units, but I don't believe they've provided guidance.

I think a 15 PE multiple is too low, but not trying to argue that point as you made an assumption. I would argue for a higher multiple based on the anticipated growth rate AND the opportunity to sell filters. This creates a long-tailed revenue stream of recurring revenue, which reduces risk (risk is another key variable in determining PE multiples).

All boils down to execution now from what I can tell. I think selling part of the business to a better capitalized third party makes sense at this juncture to ensure adequate funding to grow. I anticipate that the share price will settle somewhere in the range you outlined. It likely overshoots initially and then settles back.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

[wwg1wga]

Thanks stervc, great analysis as usual. I see this company as a great opportunity for investors. This RxAir piece is very compelling, as are the other areas of development available to the business. I very much look forward to seeing the amazing FEC tech applied to industrial products and processes and consumer goods in the future as well.

The Dr. Stone video was new for me, so thanks for that. If anyone out there has not looked into Fluid Energy Conversion and the myriad of patents that Vystar owns from that fantastic deal (with Dr. Stone) you should look into it. I am especially enamored with the Hughes Reactor technology. I believe sound wave technology will be a big piece of our future as new applications are developed using sound wave frequencies as a key component of purification and modulation in many applications. That belief, and my several conversations with Dr. Stone over the past 15 months have confirmed my belief in Vystar and its potential.

I for one am not going anywhere else with my investment in VYST and hope to see big success for Dr. Stone, the Rotmans family and all VYST employees and directors as this marvelous technology is unleashed.

[toncatmad]

All of this is great but where is the proof any units are being made or sold at all? There is nothing more than some BS by Greg and a supposed leaked deal.

No way in hell this would ever be worth .75-$2.32 per share I mean come on. In well over 10 years this company doesn’t make a dime but now it is going to be worth 750 mil to 2.3 billion dollars. Come on get real lol

[MadeMillions$]

Sterling Thank You so much as always for your BRILLIANT work! Your tireless analysis and expertise are very much appreciated here. I DEFINATELY know that all LONGS look forward to your posts with great anticipation.

I have NO DOUBT that $VYST will VERIFY your research and MUCH more in the coming days!

Thank You again!

$VYST

[stervc]

VYST & their Fluid Energy Conversion (FEC) Acquisition...

Below is info along with a series of posts to help one understand the magnitude of VYST and their Fluid Energy Conversion (FEC) acquisition and how it can relate to its most recent news of... Vystar Resumes Production of FDA Certified Rx3000 UV Light Air Purifiers for Use in Healthcare Facilities:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/VYST/news/story?e&id=1596498

https://www.vystarcorp.com/fec/

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=148114269

VYST & their Fluid Energy Conversion Acquisition...

This is huge confirmation of what I had learned regarding VYST that is believed to be what will get the company's revenues to those substantial heights far beyond the over $35 Million from the Rotmans acquisition that were already mentioned. Below is what I had learned based on how Greg Rotman had explained the technology to me:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146201900
Fluid energy conversion is based around the technology called the Hughes Reactor. Nathanial Hughes is the inventor. He referenced me to the movie we all know called Top Gun. The part when they showed the plane engine when there was a cone in the middle with the flames coming out of the sides... that’s this device. With this technology, he told me to think about a tube with a cone inside it and there’s a one-way air value to where air bubbles come in and pop. So then air, water, and gas hits the cones, it creates mini little tornadoes, then the air bubbles pop to now really what we have is sonic cavitation. They can do, from an air purification standpoint, some huge things, which is why they were acquired.

Here’s the patent for the Fluid Energy Hughes Reactor technology above:

https://patents.google.com/patent/US7897121

http://www.fluidenergyconversion.com/

v/r
Sterling

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146293083

** Mr. Rotman was very excited about the "Fluid Energy Conversion" piece because it is technology that can be used to save energy in air purifiers as well as water filtration.

** One very interesting use for the "Fluid Energy Conversion" technology is for inhalers (as in medicine) because it gives a perfect dose and there is little to no waste.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146201900

StocksGoneWild, with VYST & the Fluid Energy Conversion acquisition...

This is a VYST acquisition that the market is not even talking about right now. Back when I spoke to the company, this was explained to me and below is what I had gotten from the notes that I had taken:

Fluid energy conversion is based around the technology called the Hughes Reactor. Nathanial Hughes is the inventor. He referenced me to the movie we all know called Top Gun. The part when they showed the plane engine when there was a cone in the middle with the flames coming out of the sides... that’s this device. With this technology, he told me to think about a tube with a cone inside it and there’s a one-way air value to where air bubbles come in and pop. So then air, water, and gas hits the cones, it creates mini little tornadoes, then the air bubbles pop to now really what we have is sonic cavitation. They can do, from an air purification standpoint, some huge things, which is why they were acquired.

http://www.fluidenergyconversion.com/technology.html

Your post below speak volumes that all should read, research, and understand:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146200735
Stervc, love reading all of your posts, but this one has to be in my top 3 all time favorites. If you scroll down to the very bottom, you'll see FEC. I've dug on it for hours because its fascinating, and I really want to figure it out. This is the last piece of the code to crack for me.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146166501

Check out Nathaniel Hughes Chief Scientist...I'd pay big money to shadow this guy in the lab for a day.

The CEO is Bryan Stone, M.D. VYST board member.

VYST snatched up this company for $100,000 deal of the century.

Check out the Hughes Reactor...thats some next level, Nikola Tesla, game change'n, quantum leap shit right there. Any thoughts on it?

http://www.fluidenergyconversion.com/technology.html

v/r
Sterling

v/r
Sterling

[investtoski]

Where's the proof that they are selling anywhere close to 50 units per week? Whatever happened to their testing? Just more balderdash from the company. SO SAD

[stervc]

VYST Minimum .0775 to $2.32+ Rx3000® Valuation…

Below is the previously released news on May 05, 2020 by VYST of resuming production of its FDA Certified Rx3000® UV Light Air Purifiers for use in Healthcare Facilities:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=155487094

Before I get to explaining how this creates a fundamental valuation for VYST somewhere between .0775 to $2.32+ per share, I think there are some other facts that must be brought out to fully understand the validity of this operation.

Dr. Bryan Stone explained in the link above that the Rx3000 uses the same UVGI detailed in CDC reports in April 2020 tht stated that UVGI is one of the most promising methods for decontamination of filtering facepiece respirators (FFR) for Coronavirus (SARS CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19. Many more significant details are indicated within the link above of which I suggest all read in great detail before reading further within this post.

Important to note within the link above to help us here to derive a fundamental valuation for VYST and its operations of its FDA Certified Rx3000® UV Light Air Purifiers, I think we need to consider the amount that is currently in the manufacturing process per week and the max amount that was mentioned that the company is going to ramp up to considering everything being positive with their further testing measures that they have in place.

The coronavirus is here to stay for quite a while going well into next year and some. Still, there is no vaccine for it. So, the next best thing is to create an environment to where we can coexist with the virus. The FDA Certified Rx3000® UV Light Air Purifiers can allow us to potentially live in an environment to where the air filtered within a room will be decontaminated reducing the risk of catching the coronavirus within certain locations such as hospitals, hotels, cruise ships, stores, homes, healthcare facilities, military installations, etc., as I think you get the point for just how big this could be for VYST and us shareholders. The demand for this product will be ridiculously huge for everyone everywhere. It is a way of life as part of the new normalcy as I like to call it. Also, what about the next virus? There is a good chance that we will already be better prepared to sanitize the environments with these machines as we will now be able to filter out viruses with what VYST is bringing to the table. Their machines are what’s going to help mitigate risk of life.

Now let me explain how this creates a fundamental valuation for VYST somewhere between .0775 to $2.32+ per share.

Per the PR above released back on 05/07/2020 stated per the VYST CEO...

“We are proud to say that we’ve resumed production of the RX3000 and it is now made in Worcester, Massachusetts, enabling more control over quality and distribution,” stated Steve Rotman, CEO of Vystar. “We are now producing 50 units per week. Once we finish testing these units, we plan to ramp up to 1500 units.”...

...With an MSRP of $8,000 per unit to service a 1,500 – 3,000 sq. ft. area, Rx3000 is very cost effective. ...

I'm guessing the increase in production will be somewhat incremental. This is why I am going to reflect the revenues from the 50 units per week and then reflect incremental increases in the units per week up to the 1,500 units per week that they plan to ramp up to.

Also, VYST acquired all of the equipment necessary to make the custom filters used in the Rx3000. These large multi-stage filters retail for approximately $800 and last up to 1 year. This is also another form of revenues that must be incorporated as for when their production numbers for units increase, so shall their revenues from the sale of their filters too.

In order to derive a valuation, there are some fundamental presumptions that must be considered such as a Net Profit Margin of 25% (.25) and a conservative Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio of 15. For those who are new to understanding what a P/E Ratio is and key dynamics as it is referred to being the growth rate for a stock as it exists within its particular Industry, read the links below that hopefully will help one to see how it's used to assess the fundamental valuation of a stock:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57154170
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp

Also, let's presume an incremental increase in production of units from 50 to 100 to 250 to 500 to 1,000 to 1,500 units. If any variable that I used to derive the valuation changes or is later publicly announced to be some number different, then simply use the Substitution Property to substitute out or replace that variable with the changed variable.

Consider below...



VYST .0775 Valuation from Producing 50 Units Per Week

50 units per week x 52 weeks = 2,600 units per year x $8,000 per unit = $20,800,000 Revenue from Units
50 units per week x 52 weeks = 2,600 units per year x $800 per filter = $2,080,000 Revenue from Filter
Total Revenue from 50 units and filters = $22,880,000 per year

$22,880,000 Revenues x .25 Net Profit Margin = $5,720,000 Net Income

$5,720,000 Net Income ÷ 1,105,732,080 shares (OS) = .00517 EPS

I'm going to presume a conservative PE Ratio of 15 for the Industry which VYST would exist to trade to derive the per share valuation to be as below...

.00517 EPS x 15 PE Ratio = .0775 VYST per share valuation

In my opinion, .0775 per share should be the new low because that is from only taking into consideration the 50 units per week that they are now producing. Keep in mind too that this is only from one of a few forms of generating revenues.




VYST .154 Valuation from Producing 100 Units Per Week

100 units per week x 52 weeks = 5,200 units per year x $8,000 per unit = $41,600,000 Revenue from Units
100 units per week x 52 weeks = 5,200 units per year x $800 per filter = $4,160,000 Revenue from Filter
Total Revenue from 100 units and filters = $45,760,000 per year

$45,760,000 Revenues x .25 Net Profit Margin = $11,440,000 Net Income

$11,440,000 Net Income ÷ 1,105,732,080 shares (OS) = .0103 EPS

I'm going to presume a conservative PE Ratio of 15 for the Industry which VYST would exist to trade to derive the per share valuation to be as below...

.0103 EPS x 15 PE Ratio = .154 VYST per share valuation

This .154 per share is where VYST should fundamentally trade as a low from only producing 100 units per week. Keep in mind too that this is only from one of a few forms of generating revenues.




VYST .387 Valuation from Producing 250 Units Per Week

250 units per week x 52 weeks = 13,000 units per year x $8,000 per unit = $104,000,000 Revenue from Units
250 units per week x 52 weeks = 13,000 units per year x $800 per filter = $10,400,000 Revenue from Filter
Total Revenue from 250 units and filters = $114,400,000 per year

$114,400,000 Revenues x .25 Net Profit Margin = $28,600,000 Net Income

$28,600,000 Net Income ÷ 1,105,732,080 shares (OS) = .0258 EPS

I'm going to presume a conservative PE Ratio of 15 for the Industry which VYST would exist to trade to derive the per share valuation to be as below...

.0258 EPS x 15 PE Ratio = .387 VYST per share valuation

This .387 per share is where VYST should fundamentally trade as a low from only producing 250 units per week. Keep in mind too that this is only from one of a few forms of generating revenues.




VYST .775 Valuation from Producing 500 Units Per Week

500 units per week x 52 weeks = 26,000 units per year x $8,000 per unit = $208,000,000 Revenue from Units
500 units per week x 52 weeks = 26,000 units per year x $800 per filter = $20,800,000 Revenue from Filter
Total Revenue from 500 units and filters = $228,800,000 per year

$228,800,000 Revenues x .25 Net Profit Margin = $57,200,000 Net Income

$57,200,000 Net Income ÷ 1,105,732,080 shares (OS) = .0517 EPS

I'm going to presume a conservative PE Ratio of 15 for the Industry which VYST would exist to trade to derive the per share valuation to be as below...

.0517 EPS x 15 PE Ratio = .775 VYST per share valuation

This .775 per share is where VYST should fundamentally trade as a low from only producing 500 units per week. Keep in mind too that this is only from one of a few forms of generating revenues.




VYST $1.55 Valuation from Producing 1,000 Units Per Week

1,000 units per week x 52 weeks = 52,000 units per year x $8,000 per unit = $416,000,000 Revenue from Units
1,000 units per week x 52 weeks = 52,000 units per year x $800 per filter = $41,600,000 Revenue from Filter
Total Revenue from 1,000 units and filters = $457,600,000 per year

$457,600,000 Revenues x .25 Net Profit Margin = $114,400,000 Net Income

$114,400,000 Net Income ÷ 1,105,732,080 shares (OS) = .1034 EPS

I'm going to presume a conservative PE Ratio of 15 for the Industry which VYST would exist to trade to derive the per share valuation to be as below...

.1034 EPS x 15 PE Ratio = $1.55 VYST per share valuation

This $1.55 per share is where VYST should fundamentally trade as a low from only producing 1,000 units per week. Keep in mind too that this is only from one of a few forms of generating revenues.




VYST $2.32 Valuation from Producing 1,500 Units Per Week

1,500 units per week x 52 weeks = 78,000 units per year x $8,000 per unit = $624,000,000 Revenue from Units
1,500 units per week x 52 weeks = 78,000 units per year x $800 per filter = $62,400,000 Revenue from Filter
Total Revenue from 1,000 units and filters = $686,400,000 per year

$686,400,000 Revenues x .25 Net Profit Margin = $171,600,000 Net Income

$171,600,000 Net Income ÷ 1,105,732,080 shares (OS) = .155 EPS

I'm going to presume a conservative PE Ratio of 15 for the Industry which VYST would exist to trade to derive the per share valuation to be as below...

.155 EPS x 15 PE Ratio = $2.32 VYST per share valuation

This $2.32 per share is where VYST should fundamentally trade as a low from only producing 1,500 units per week. Keep in mind too that this is only from one of a few forms of generating revenues.



Destruction of Viruses Verifies at Northeast Labs, a FDA Certified Facility by Dr. Bryan Stone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHV10SDc2b8&feature=youtu.be

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/VYST/news/Vystar-Resumes-Production-of-FDA-Certified-Rx3000-UV-Light-Air-Purifiers-for-Use-in-Healthcare-Facilities?id=261342

Bryan Stone, MD, Internal Medicine and Nephrology, Chief of Medicine for Desert Regional Medical Center, notes that “Rx3000’s one-two punch of pathogen trapping HEPA filtration and UV light pathogen inactivation can play a critical role in reducing exposure to dangerous airborne viruses and bacteria. Rx3000 uses the same UVGI detailed in CDC reports as one of the most promising methods for SARS CoV-2 disinfection for facemasks.


Vystar Resumes Production of FDA Certified Rx3000 UV Light Air Purifiers for Use in Healthcare Facilities

• Rx3000® UV Light Air Purifier production shifts to Massachusetts to ensure quality, fast production & delivery
• Rx3000 inactivates on first pass 99.97% of harmful airborne viruses & bacteria.
• CDC states UV-C light is one of the most promising methods for Coronavirus (CoV-2) disinfection of face masks.

Worcester, MA, May 07, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Vystar Corp. (OTCQB: VYST) has shifted to Massachusetts production of its Rx3000®, a hybrid ultraviolet (UV)-light air purification system designed specifically for hospitals. Rx3000 is FDA cleared as a Class II Medical Device and was designed by biomedical engineers for use in hospitals and healthcare facilities. Rx3000 utilizes ultraviolet-C (UV-C) germicidal irradiation (UVGI) to inactivate 99.97% of airborne viruses, bacteria and other pathogens on first pass.

“We are proud to say that we’ve resumed production of the RX3000 and it is now made in Worcester, Massachusetts, enabling more control over quality and distribution,” stated Steve Rotman, CEO of Vystar. “We are now producing 50 units per week. Once we finish testing these units, we plan to ramp up to 1500 units.”

The Rx3000 combines patented ViraTech™ germicidal UV-C light with a five-stage HEPA filtration proven in independent EPA- and FDA-certified laboratory testing to inactivate on first pass more than 99.97% of airborne viruses, bacteria and other contaminants. Rx3000 has been proven effective at inactivating airborne pathogens that cause pneumonia, influenza, MRSA (staph), streptococcus (whooping cough), tuberculosis (TB), measles and a myriad of other antibiotic-resistant and viral infections.

UV Light Treatment of Coronavirus (COVID-19) - The CDC has long stated that UVGI is effective in reducing the transmission of airborne bacterial and viral infections in hospitals, military housing, and classrooms. The CDC in April 2020 stated that UVGI is one of the most promising methods for decontamination of filtering facepiece respirators (FFR) for Coronavirus (SARS CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19. The report notes SARS CoV-2 may be inactivated by high doses of UV-C light, similar to the 99.9%-99.999% inactivation rate of UVGI on other viruses such as Influenza A (H1N1), Avian influenza A virus (H5N1), Influenza A (H7N9) A/Anhui/1/2013, Influenza A (H7N9) A/Shanghai/1/2013, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV. Rx3000 has not been tested directly for effectiveness against airborne Coronavirus (SARS CoV-2), however it uses the UVGI technology detailed in the CDC reports.

UVGI is harmful to skin and the eyes. Rx3000 is designed to prevent direct exposure of UV light to skin or eyes during normal operation.
The CDC reports that many COVID-19 patients develop pneumonia and other respiratory infections. These are often spread by airborne pathogens,” stated Bryan Stone, MD, Internal Medicine and Nephrology, Chief of Medicine for Desert Regional Medical Center, and expert consultant for medical application and technology development. “Rx3000’s one-two punch of pathogen trapping HEPA filtration and UV light pathogen inactivation can play a critical role in reducing exposure to dangerous airborne viruses and bacteria.”

Dr. Stone noted, “No matter how much you sanitize a room’s surfaces, it is all undone by the simple act of an infected person exhaling, sneezing or coughing harmful viruses or bacteria in the vicinity of that surface or near another person. While the CDC addresses methods for personal and surface disinfection, the Rx3000 is an effective tool to reduce airborne pathogens, further protecting those people and key surfaces.”

Rx3000 is used in hundreds of hospitals and healthcare facilities. With an MSRP of $8,000 per unit to service a 1,500 – 3,000 sq. ft. area, Rx3000 is very cost effective. Vystar acquired 100% of the assets and patented intellectual property related to the Rx3000, RxAir™ for residential and small business use, custom filtration and other UV light air purification technologies from UV Flu Technologies (OTCBB: UVFT) in 2018. Vystar also acquired all of the equipment necessary to make the custom filters used in the Rx3000. These large multi-stage filters retail for approximately $800 and last up to 1 year, depending on use.

More information on Rx3000 and RxAir UV Light Air Purifiers visit http://www.RxAir.com.
Follow Vystar, Rx3000, RxAir and Vytex® news on social media:
Twitter: @VystarCompany
#Coronavirus
#Covid
#UVLight
# # #
About RxAir
RxAir promotes a healthy lifestyle through the use of its innovative patented, ViraTech air purification technology, thereby improving the quality of life of each and every customer. Independently tested by EPA- and FDA-certified laboratories, the RxAir has been proven to destroy greater than 99% of bacteria and viruses and reduce concentrations of odors and VOCs. The RxAir uses high-intensity germicidal UV lamps that destroy bacteria and viruses instead of just trapping them, setting it apart from ordinary air filtration units. RxAir® and ViraTech® are registered trademarks of Vystar Corp. For more information, visit http://www.RxAir.com

About Vystar Corporation:

Based in Worcester, Mass., Vystar® Corp. (OTCQB: VYST) is the majority owner of Rotmans Furniture and Carpet and environmentally friendly technologies and products to improve lives, such as RxAir UV light air purification products, Fluid Energy Solutions and Vytex Natural Rubber Latex (NRL). Vystar is the exclusive creator of Vytex, a multi-patented, all-natural, raw material that contains significantly reduced levels of the proteins found in natural rubber latex and can be used in over 40,000 products. Vytex NRL is a 100% renewable resource, environmentally safe, "green" and fully biodegradable. Vystar is working with manufacturers across a broad range of consumer and medical products bringing Vytex NRL to market in adhesives, gloves, balloons, condoms, other medical devices and natural rubber latex foam mattresses, toppers, and pillows. For more information, visit www.vytex.com.

Contacts:
Media: Julie Shepherd, Accentuate PR, 847 275 3643, [e-mail]
Investors: Steven Rotman, Vystar CEO, 508-791-9114, [e-mail]

Forward-looking Statements: Investors are cautioned that certain statements contained in this document as well as some statements in periodic press releases and some oral statements of VYST officials are "Forward-Looking Statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the "Act"). Forward-looking statements include statements which are predictive in nature, which depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, which include words such as "believes," "anticipates," "intends," "plans," "expects," and similar expressions. In addition, any statements concerning future financial performance (including future revenues, earnings or growth rates), ongoing business strategies or prospects, and possible future VYST actions, which may be provided by management, are also forward-looking statements as defined by the Act. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to materially differ from any future results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements and to vary significantly from reporting period to reporting period. Although management believes that the assumptions made and expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that the underlying assumptions will, in fact, prove to be correct or that actual future results will not be different from the expectations expressed in this report. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and VYST has no specific intention to update these statements.

v/r
Sterling