China Could Be in Reach of Hawaii After Monday’s Election in Kiribati
""U.S.A. note" - Taiwan election: Tsai Ing-Wen wins landslide in rebuke to China"
The strategic significance of the vote could not be higher.
By Christopher Pala | June 19, 2020, 2:00 PM
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Kiribati President Taneti Maamau sign a memorandum of understanding at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, on Jan. 6. Mark Schiefelbein - Pool/Getty Images
A watershed moment in China’s expansion across the Pacific toward the Americas will unfold Monday when Kiribati, a country with only 110,000 inhabitants that controls a vast expanse of ocean, decides whether to reelect a pro-China president or choose a challenger pledged to recognize Taiwan.
-- At stake for China is the possibility of gaining a foothold in Christmas Island, located just 1,300 miles south of Honolulu, home to the U.S. Pacific Command. --
At stake for China is the possibility of gaining a foothold in Kiribati’s Christmas Island, the world’s biggest atoll with a land area of 150 square miles. It’s located just 1,300 miles south of Honolulu, home to the U.S. Pacific Command. Building port facilities on Christmas Island, ostensibly for tourism but capable of use by Chinese warships, is a concern for the U.S. military.
For Taiwan, reversing Kiribati’s 2019 defection—which brought the number of countries worldwide that recognize its existence as a sovereign nation down to 15 .. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3029626/taiwan-down-15-allies-kiribati-announces-switch-diplomatic — would be a significant victory for President Tsai Ing-wen. Still, “China has more to win than Taiwan has to lose at this point,” said Natasha Kassam of the Lowy Institute in Sydney. Even if the pro-China candidate wins, “the domestic political cost of switching allegiances in Kiribati has already served its purpose as a cautionary tale to other partners of Taiwan,” Kassam told Foreign Policy.
When Kiribati President Taneti Maamau announced last September his decision to switch his country’s support to Beijing, even members of his own party were surprised. In fact, Kiribati’s ambassador to the United Nations and United States, Teburoro Tito (himself a former Kiribati president), was in the U.N. secretary-general’s office arguing the case for Taiwan to attend meetings organized by the U.N. when he learned of the decision. Maamau was elected in 2016 on a pledge to retain ties with Taiwan, which his predecessor, Anote Tong, had initiated in 2003.
The sudden switch to Beijing did not go down well in Kiribati. Demonstrations were held with protesters waving Taiwanese flags and chanting, “We love Taiwan, we hate China, we want peace.” The leader of the opposition, Titabu Tabane, accused the government of failing to consult the people.
The move also caused enough members of parliament from Maamau’s party, including its chairman, Banuera Berina, to bolt to the opposition and deprive Maamau of his previously comfortable majority when a new parliament was elected in April.
According to Kiribati sources, there were several reasons for Maamau’s switch from Taiwan to Beijing.
-- Demonstrations were held with protesters waving Taiwanese flags and chanting, “We love Taiwan, we hate China, we want peace.” --
First, Maamau’s administration has espoused multiple scientific studies that predict his country’s sand islands will gain elevation in tandem with a sea level expected to rise by 1 meter by century’s end—not drown within decades as prophesied by his predecessor, Tong. So Maamau has embarked on an ambitious program .. http://www.mfed.gov.ki/sites/default/files/KIRIBATI%2020-YEAR%20VISION%202016-2036%20.pdf .. to develop the country and lift his people out of poverty, leveraging tourism—mostly on Christmas Island—and the tuna fishery.
However, Berina—the former party leader, defector, and now Maamau’s challenger in Monday’s election [ June 22, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Kiribati_presidential_election ] — said in an interview that he was told that Taiwan had given Kiribati officials a very different story. They allegedly offered Kiribati a grant covertly disguised as a loan: When its repayment came due, Taiwan would increase bilateral aid in proportion, so the loan reimbursement would be covered by Taiwan. The claim could not be verified.
A second reason for the switch to Beijing, according to government sources, is that the ruling party leadership feared that Taiwan would give money to the opponents of Maamau and his party in this year’s parliamentary and presidential elections. Members of Maamau’s party, when they were in the opposition from 2003 to 2016, often complained that Taiwan gave cash at election time to parliamentarians of then-President Tong’s party, and the leaders of Maamau’s party feared the old alliance would reemerge. Under Kiribati law, there are no restrictions on who may give money to elected officials, and Kiribati is in the bottom third of the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index.
A third reason, proffered by the pro-Taiwan opposition, is in line with complaints about Chinese bribery offers in small countries that suddenly found themselves in Beijing’s embrace, such as the Solomon Islands, which flipped allegiances four days before Kiribati. There, Daniel Sudaini, premier of the Solomon’s largest island, Malaita, told an Australian .. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzCqQKnF9Oo .. 60 Minutes team that he was offered (and had turned down) $1 million to back the switch. He added on camera that he thought there were a lot of corrupt officials in his government.
-- Kiribati officials have spoken of Chinese aid in the hundreds of millions of dollars, but they have not provided much detail. --
The Australian crew, on a tour of the Pacific to investigate China’s expansion, had just traveled to Tarawa in Kiribati when it was placed under house arrest at its hotel upon arrival because, officials said, it lacked proper authorizations to film. Before they were expelled on the next plane out, the journalists were visited in their hotel by Ieremia Tabai, Kiribati’s first president who is now an opposition parliamentarian, and Tabane, the opposition leader. The latter called their detention “a sad day for democracy.” A reporter quoted them as saying that China had “doled out A$250,000 cash within weeks of Kiribati’s recognition of Beijing.” (Kiribati’s currency is the Australian dollar.)
In an interview with Foreign Policy, Berina, the opposition presidential candidate, said that when Maamau announced the switch and several parliamentarians protested that Taiwan was popular and they feared losing their seats as a result of the switch, Maamau told them not to worry “because we will be getting campaign money from China.” Berina added: “I was shocked.”
Though government officials have spoken of Chinese aid in the hundreds of millions of dollars—which they swear will consist only of grants, not loans that would risk trapping Kiribati in debt it could not repay to China—they have not provided much detail. But when Maamau made his first state visit to Beijing, he signed a Belt and Road Memorandum of Understanding that involved only loans, according to Berina, who was still the ruling party’s chairman at the time. His claim could not be verified immediately.
A vivid illustration of China’s interest in Christmas Island came in an official photograph .. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-06/Xi-Jinping-meets-Kiribati-s-president-in-Beijing--N2gIPad7xe/index.html .. of the signing ceremony showing Maamau facing Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the minister for the Line Islands, of which Christmas is a part, on his right. Mikarite Temari, the minister, is a relatively peripheral figure in Kiribati politics but key to developing Christmas and its port infrastructure.
-- Whether China continues its expansion across the Pacific to displace the United States and its allies may very well be decided by this tiny island nation. --
Kiribati sources said the campaign ahead of Monday’s election has focused largely on China: Would it use aid promises and bribes to flood the country with its workers to build white elephant projects, possibly bringing COVID-19 to one of the last nations devoid of it, as the opposition claims? Will it press its expansionist agenda, taking over Christmas just as China tried, within days of gaining recognition from the Solomons, to lease all of Tulagi Island, the former capital under British and Japanese rule with a perfect deep-water harbor? Or will the Maamau administration hold firm and take only grants that materially benefit the population, such as for adaptation measures against sea-level rise and tourism infrastructure to lure visitors from Hawaii, for whom pristine Christmas is the closest accessible tropical atoll?
Tito, the U.N. and U.S. envoy, said that even though it gives no aid to Kiribati, the United States remains popular for cultural and historical reasons, not least for having liberated what was then still a British protectorate from Japanese occupation in the 1943 Battle of Tarawa. When Kiribati gained independence from Britain a little more than 40 years ago, it signed a friendship treaty with the United States under which no military installations can be built in Kiribati by other countries without Washington’s consent. Though he found it hard to imagine, Tito said that the treaty’s abrogation, with due six-month notice, was “possible.”
The global strategic significance of Kiribati’s election on Monday could therefore not be higher. Whether China continues its expansion across the Pacific to displace the United States and its allies may very well be decided by this tiny island nation.
Christopher Pala, a former New York Times contributor covering the Pacific and Central Asia, now lives in Washington, DC.
Hong Kong police ban protest against China's controversial national security law
""U.S.A. note" - Taiwan election: Tsai Ing-Wen wins landslide in rebuke to China"
Protesters take part in last year's 1 July handover rally, which this year was to take place around the expected enaction of controversial security legislation Source: AP
Critics say the controversial law, which would enforce punishment for subversion and other offences in Hong Kong, could deliver a knock-out blow to freedoms enjoyed by the city.
Updated Updated 15 hours ago
Hong Kong police on Saturday banned a major demonstration against China's planned national security law for the city which critics fear would smother the financial hub's treasured freedoms, organisers said.
The Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) said the force had rejected its applications for rallies on 1 July, the 23rd anniversary of the former British colony's handover to China.
Police cited a risk of violence and said the gatherings and march would "pose a severe threat to public health" due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The pro-democracy group CHRF, which was responsible for some of last year's unprecedented million-people demonstrations, said they would appeal the decision.
The semi-autonomous city has been convulsed by a year of huge and often violent rallies that began with an eventually aborted criminal extradition bill but morphed into a popular call for democracy and police accountability.
In May, Beijing announced a draft national security law - which will bypass Hong Kong's legislature - to tackle "terrorism" and "separatism" in a restless city it now regards as a direct national security threat.
The law would enforce punishment for subversion and other offences in Hong Kong, but critics see it as potential knock-out blow for freedoms and autonomy enjoyed by the city.
Kenneth RapozaSenior Contributor I write about business and investing in emerging markets.
Heavy flooding upstream on the Yangtze River and its tributaries is causing the massive Three Gorges ... [+] ASSOCIATED PRESS
Seems to be part of the times, no? A once in a generation pandemic, a once in a generation flood. Parts of China are literally up to their eyeballs in water, in what the Chinese government is calling a once in 100 years flood. The Three Gorges Dam, built to stop these things, is now in the spotlight.
The Three Gorges Dam is the world’s largest hydroelectric power station, with an installed capacity of 22,500 megawatts of power generation. The thing is, that the power station is down the Yangtze River from a handful of other dams that exist at a higher elevation than the Three Gorges. And because of the floods and problems at those dams upstream, Three Gorges is buckling under the strain of massive flows of water.
Cities in the country's central region along the Yangtze River — China's longest river — have been flooded in the past week due to heavy rains this monsoon season. It was reported to be the worst flood since 1998, and not 100 years as some in Beijing have said.
All told, more than 400 Yangtze tributary rivers have overflowed, with nearly 200 people dead and properties underwater.
Average rainfall is around 12% higher than last monsoon season. The economic damage from flooding is expected to reach 86.2 billion yuan ($12 billion), according to some government estimates made on Friday.
On Sunday, the AP reported from Beijing that authorities blasted down an entire dam in order to release surging waters behind it and let it run.
State broadcaster CCTV reported the dam on the Chuhe River in Anhui province was blown to bits with explosives early Sunday morning, after which the water level was expected to drop by two feet.
Last week, the Three Gorges Dam opened three floodgates as the water level behind it rose more than 50 feet above the flood zone. Another flood crest is expected to arrive at the dam on Tuesday, the AP article states, adding that China’s military has been testing the strength of embankments and shoring them up with sandbags and rocks.
Over the weekend, firefighters finished filling in a 620-foot break on Poyang Lake, China’s largest freshwater lake, that caused flooding into 15 villages, sinking grain crops in Jiangxi province under water.
As of late Sunday, the Huaihe River was overflowing as heavy rain is forecast in the region for the next three days, according to China’s Ministry of Emergency Management.
From today to Wednesday, more strong rains will raise flood risks for rivers connecting to Three Gorges, though it seems that the heaviest rains will end by mid-week, saving the world’s largest dam from further stress.
Floods are expected to pose a threat to parts of Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces this week, while heavy mountain rains will likely hit parts of Sichuan and Guizhou provinces, according to the AP, though this shouldn’t have any impact on the strength of Three Gorges.
The last thing China needs is for that dam to fail. Papering that over would be a bitter pill to swallow for Beijing.
Posted Oct. 2011 - As Its Economy Sprints Ahead, China’s People Are Left Behind
A shopkeeper napping on a busy shopping street in Jilin. While Western companies look at China as a potentially huge market, consumers in Jilin and other heartland cities mostly settle for what state-run department stores and mom-and-pop shops offer.
DAVID BARBOZA October 9, 2011
JILIN CITY, China — Wang Jianping and his wife, Shue, are a relatively affluent Chinese couple, with an annual household income of $16,000 — more than double the national average for urban families.
They own a modest, three-bedroom apartment here in this northeastern industrial city. They paid for their son to study electrical engineering at prestigious Tsinghua University, in Beijing. And even by frugal Asian standards, they are prodigious savers, with $50,000 in a state-run bank.
But like many other Chinese families, the Wangs feel pressed. They do not own a car, and they rarely go shopping or out to eat. That is because the value of their nest egg is shrinking, through no fault of their own.
Under an economic system that favors state-run banks and companies over wage earners, the government keeps the interest rate on savings accounts so artificially low that it cannot keep pace with China’s rising inflation. At the same time, other factors in which the government plays a role — a weak social safety net, depressed wages and soaring home prices — create a hoarding impulse that compels many people to keep saving anyway, against an uncertain future.
[...]
Together, these measures added up to the managed-market system now known as state capitalism. They worked so well that they not only helped resuscitate China’s failing banks and state companies, but also fueled the nation’s economic boom for more than a decade. But the system also took an enormous economic toll on personal pocketbooks.
“We’d like to spend, but we really have nothing left over after paying the bills,” said Yang Yang, 34, a school administrator who lives in Jilin City with her husband, a police officer, and their son, 10. “Even though our son goes to a public school, we need to pay fees for after-school courses, which everyone is expected to take. Almost every family will do this. So there’s a lot of pressure on us to do it, too.” To save money, Ms. Yang, her husband and son recently moved in with her parents.
[...]
For many Chinese economists, the state capitalism that helped jump-start growth has become counterproductive.
“China is already beyond the point where the law of diminishing returns starts biting,” said Xu Xiaonian, an economist who teaches at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.
Mr. Xu argues that China risks repeating the mistakes Japan made in the 1980s and early 1990s, when it relied too long on a predominantly export economy, neglected domestic markets and allowed real estate prices to soar. Since Japan’s bubble burst in the mid-1990s, its economy has never really recovered.
“If we don’t change, we will follow those same footsteps,” Mr. Xu said. “We have already seen the early signs of what we might call the Japanese disease. China invests more and more, but those investments generate less and less growth.” https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67838120
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
