Say new deaths per day fell to 1000/d then May to August end would be roughly 120d x 1000/d = 120, 000.
Add the 70, 000 now and the GOP political pressures to ease mitigation measures then 200, 000 deaths look well in the ballpark.
We are talking about official deaths only, of course, so the actual death count by August end would be maybe closer to 250, 000.
You lost me a bit with the Jared comment and the 400,000.
Maybe when i figure out the content of yours more it will be clearer to me.