For 30 to 90 days horizon: Short the Nasdaq (special intraday report) at 1901 on 10/8/03.
Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Flat.
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What to expect now:
We calculated the average volume for the high of 9/19 to the low of 9/26 and it came in at 1.37 billion shares. We then took from the low to the current high the average daily volume and it came in at 1.34 billion shares. The down force was about equal to the up force and paints a neutral condition for the S&P market. This condition suggests a trading range type scenario. Support comes in near 1025 level and not far from here. We are staying flat this market for now.
Nasdaq Composite:
We measured the average daily volume from the high 9/19 down to 9/26 and it came in at 1.91 billion shares. We measured the volume from the low of 9/30 to the high of yesterday and it came in at 1.75. We identify force of a move by it's volume, the higher the volume in that direction the stronger the move in that direction. The volume on the recent rally to current highs showed about 8 1/2% less volume then the decline off of the previous high. This condition implies there was more down force on the last decline then the rally force to the current high. This is a bearish sign. Today the Nasdaq test high of 9/24 and volume dropped about 15% and then closed below that high, triggering a sell signal. A gap formed between 10/2 and 10/3 at the 1865 level. Gap act like previous lows and to get through this gap at the 1865 level, volume would need to pick up near 2 billion shares. If volume comes in near 1.81 billion shares, then expect the gap to hold and the market may bounce. We will be watching the volume at the 1865 level for a trigger to sell or hold. Short the Nasdaq (special intraday report) at 1901 on 10/8/03.
We are watching a stock (VLNC) that may be drawing a "Head and Shoulders bottom" on the Weekly charts. Time cycles point to mid November as where the "Right Shoulder" may be completed. This stock could pull back to 2.70 and not change the bullish scenario. Upside target would be near the 8.00 range. We are also watching SIRI and it may have a good chance to test the low of 8/7 near the 1.40 area and may create a buy signal at that level. It's on our watch list for November. Upside target near 3.50-3.75.
Tim Ord and Fari Hamzei are having a technical analysis workshop in Lincoln Nebraska 11/1/03-Go to www.ord-oracle.com .
GOLD Market:
On last night report, we said, "The Gold market drew a "Triangle Pattern" from the 2/5/03 high. This "Triangle Pattern" pushed out to over 75% of the way to the Apex. When a "Triangle pattern" pushes out past 2/3 of the way to the Apex, the breakout will usually come back to the Apex and then reverse back up. The Apex comes in near the 360 level. We anticipate that Gold will pull back to the 360 level before the next big move up begins. This would equate that the XAU would pull back to the 86 level. After this minor consolidation is complete, we expect the XAU to march up to 105 to 115 ranges before a significant consolidation begins." The current consolidation is of minor degree, the trend is still up.
We bought BGO at 1.05,1.17 and 1.28. The Next significant consolidation may start in BGO near 2.70 to 3.40 ranges, which is near the 1997 highs. On (9/25) BGO hit 2.84 and we took off about 1/3 of our position between 2.64 to 2.79 (Average 2.72). We may light up to 50% long on any rally to 2.80 or higher on BGO and will add to positions below 2.00. We hold Drooy at 1.04, 2.23, 2.33, 2.42 and 2.74. Drooy broke-out of it's trading range by closing above the 2.90 range the other day with huge volume. Next upside resistance may come in near 4.50, which is the December 02 high. However, the bigger time frame suggests Drooy may rally to 7.00 to 7.50 range before a significant consolidation starts. Drooy may continue to rally to the 7.00 range after the XAU starts its next consolidation.
We are watching CDE near the 2.50 range to buy this stock.
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