I would never say Icahn is irrelevant. But it is UST that controls the key assets in the SPSPA. Don't let Crazy Carlos distract you from that basic reality.
Mnuchin is THE MAN. He, alone, has the biggest vote in the eventual outcome, now. Icahn is a bit player. Berko is a bit player. Calabria is a bit player compared to the cards that Mnuchin holds.
If you want to follow the $$$, follow what Mnuchin/UST controls... Common Shares.