Replies to post #238 on S&P 500 price levels to trade

[rimshot]

2801.20 = /ES futures 50-day EMA value
as of close on Friday April 17, 2020

* bears need to hold the /ES price action
below the 50-day EMA to gain Staying Power
for a lasting decline

the weekly and monthly Pivot values are
substantially lower than the 50-day EMA

==========

March 21, 2020 comments about the $SPX cash index -

reference the Edwards & Magee, 11th edition for reasons
behind these price levels being selected as a potential vigilance
range going forward

a lasting hold above $SPX 2472 is required for any bullish attempt to gain traction

a lasting hold below $SPX 1940 is required for the bears to gain traction in an attempt to
re-test the Brexit low achieved a few years ago

in addition, failed horizontal support on the look-back period using
250 trading days rests at $SPX 2485 region - a lasting
hold above 2485 is required to be confident in the bullish case

=============

the 200-day EMA for the S&P 500 cumulative net Advance-Decline
line has reliably called the timing window for the bottoming
of the $SPX price action in December 2018 and in March 2020

ditto for the S&P 100

[rimshot]

SPY 294.53 = one of the prior daily close lows,
which bulls must surpass by future daily closes to
achieve a lasting price advance with probable Staying Power

* a future failure to hold multiple daily closes above
the SPY 286.64 horizontal level will represent
bearish evidence for at least the near-term

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p48032502715&a=663798088&r=1586349862082

===========================================

SPY 299.72 = 100-day SMA
SPY 299.25 = 20-week SMA
SPY 297.51 = 200-day SMA
SPY 296.52 = 5-month SMA
SPY 295.98 = 50-week SMA
SPY 291.93 = 200-day EMA
SPY 291.62 = 50-week EMA
SPY 291.39 = 15-week SMA
SPY 290.88 = 15-month SMA

* bulls want to see a lasting hold above the
moving averages shown above

bears need to violate the moving averages shown below to
achieve Staying Power for a lasting decline

287.89 = 5-day SMA
287.14 = 63-day SMA
286.29 = 60-minute 50-period EMA
284.57 = 4-week SMA
283.82 = 20-month EMA
282.68 = 100-week SMA
282.36 = 10-week EMA
282.35 = 60-minute 89-period EMA
282.23 = 15-day SMA
281.01 = 50-day EMA
278.84 = 20-day EMA
277.79 = 600-day SMA
277.30 = 5-week SMA
275.69 = 50-day SMA
275.41 = 21-day SMA
267.99 = 60-minute 200-period SMA

updated after the close
Thursday April 30, 2020

=========================================

repeat of explanation is shown below because
even though the McSum is generally rising
so far this week for most indices
in the US equity market, the McSum remains a
distance below its zero line for most indices
including the $SPX and the $OEX
meaning the bears have the advantage over the bulls
until the McSum's actually hold a lasting advance above the zero line

the indices with McSum's above zero line as of April 30th are:

S&P 400 Mid Cap
Nasdaq Composite index
Nasdaq 100 index
NYSE all-issues index, using the Ratio Adjusted McSum

McClellan Oscillator

The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.
It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values.
These indicators move within a trading range and often identify the overbought/oversold condition of the market

McClellan Summation Index

( McSum = McClellan Summation Index )

the dominant rule is: price will eventually follow the direction of the McSum, except for brief periods of price divergence

The McSum is neutral at the zero line,
bullish while above,
and confirmed bearish while below zero[/b]

* the distance down or up to the McSum zero line currently represents
one objective measure of the minimum movement that is possible

Confirmed sell signals are a lasting decline below the McSum zero line,
though price action has usually declined by a large amount by the time
zero is reached from the McSum peak above.

Large distances between the McSum daily chart values represent acceleration events in the A-D breadth decline or advance,
and the follow-on price impact has a high correlation with the McSum's direction, and usually has several days staying power