Replies to post #231114 on Biotech Values

[biocqr]

50-80 fold higher infections than previously reported in Santa Clara county...

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both.

These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

[semi_infinite]

So that is about what Stanford found in Santa Clara County. ie around 0.1% mortality rate of those carrying the virus. The lack of testing has really blinded us on infection spread and disease course. Probably the a significant component of the mortality models have to be revised down drastically from initial guesses of 2 million deaths.

[vinmantoo]

The 200 participants generally appeared healthy, but about half told the doctors they had had at least one symptom of COVID-19 in the past four weeks.

So, 50% were asymptomatic. That correlates with the data from the USS Roosevelt where 60% of the young healthy sailors were asymptomatic.

“I think it’s both good news and bad news,” said Dr. John Iafrate, vice chairman of MGH’s pathology department and the study’s principal investigator. “The bad news is that there’s a raging epidemic in Chelsea, and many people walking on the street don’t know that they’re carrying the virus and that they may be exposing uninfected individuals in their families.”

Yes, that is the worry and shows how quickly and widely the virus will spread if severe steps to slow the spread aren't implemented and maintained.

[caravon]

So, MA State and local government official can congratulate themselves for COVID19 epidemics in MA.

No wonder MA is just behind NY and NJ in the official numbers of Confirmed COVID19 infected.

[jq1234]

I’d caution on trusting those testing results though. MGH didn’t disclose test kit sensitivity/specificity, but said using one from BioMedomics which had very low sensitivity of less than 89% and specificity of less than 91%. It depends on real prevalence, which we don’t really know, that type low sensitivity/specificity implies result can be substantially off.

Article said test from BioMedomics pic.twitter.com/KQ1mQ9FB1Y

— mukund rao (@neemodog) April 18, 2020