Replies to post #302099 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[haber]

You kinda evaded my question, but again I'm assuming you'd rather he say nothing. So what is the right time to say something? At 5k deaths? 10k? 50?

I also don't think 200k is a crazy number. There's a lot of models that have it much, much higher. It all depends on how much people are willing to isolate to stop/slow the spread of the diseason.

Here's an article from the NY Times where the CDC ran through 4 scenarios that ranged from 200k-1.7m deaths (this was prior to a lot of the quarantines / social distancing being enacted)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

Here's another article from TheDaily Wire saying 2.2m-4m people would die if no precautions were taken

https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford-professors-coronavirus-death-rate-estimate-likely-orders-of-magnitude-too-high

So again, it doesn't seem like 200k is that far-fetched, especially considering he himself called it "extreme".