Some say the country should be put into the equivalent of an induced coma for a couple of weeks to try to keep COVID-19 at bay. This would mean borders being sealed, most institutions and businesses closed, streets empty and people working from home.
Debate is raging about whether Canberra should introduce an Italian-style lockdown to keep the coronavirus at bay. David Rowe
They say although the economic burden would be substantial, the health benefits would be substantial too. It would put the brakes on transmission and reduce the viral load in the community.
But there are three issues here. First, it’s not known yet whether the virus will resurge once restrictions are relaxed. China is being watched closely .. https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p548nj .. on this score.
Second, Australia has a seasonal concern. A two-week lockdown now may cause a surge that coincides with the flu season and risks overwhelming the healthcare system. Whatever the government decides to do, its central task is to keep the number of people needing medical help within the country’s capacity to provide this help. If it can’t achieve this, the death rate will rise, as has happened in Italy.
Third, Australia's unique geography, with concentrations of population separated by wide-open spaces, does not lend itself to total closure. An outbreak in Brisbane shouldn't cause Perth to close down. Even within each state, closures can be phased in and out, depending where problems occur.
And there will be problems. At the time of writing, NSW has almost 80 cases, [to 357 cases now, tracking as Spain, France and the U.S.A. but they are a stage ahead of Australia] but this week its citizens were shocked when the state’s chief medical officer, Dr Kerry Chant, predicted that 1.5 million of them were likely to be infected in the first wave of this virus .. https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p549b0 . At a death rate of 0.1 per cent, this would mean 1500 deaths. But then, no one knows when the wave will come or what the final death rate will be.
These NSW figures could frighten people into packing up and going home. If they did, they'd be supported by the federal opposition, which wants urgent, "draconian" measures, with schools, universities and workplaces closed and mass events cancelled.
Health experts divided
People in positions of authority, such as Victoria’s premier, Daniel Andrews, think it is inevitable that eventually schools will close for a period and the workforces of entire sectors will be at home.
Health experts are divided. Some say that as we will have to act eventually, why not do so immediately? Others say this is not a binary situation: it’s not all or nothing, there is an agile middle way and Australia is well embarked upon it.
“Our approach has to be tiered, pre-emptive and tailored to the local epidemiology,” says associate professor Craig Dalton of the University of Newcastle’s School of Medicine and Public Health in NSW.
“This is not a one-size-fits-all situation. It has to be tailored to what we can see is happening and what we forecast will happen.
“Every country could have responded earlier and faster, but Australia is in a very good position, far better than a country such as the US. We’ve already had much testing done and we are not getting lots and lots of unlinked cases like in the US. That’s good and that’s how we want to keep it."
By unlinked, he means cases that pop up and can’t be traced to an obvious source. The problem is that for every pop-up, there may be 20 or 30 more who remain undiagnosed and potentially are infecting others.
Tracking the viral spread
As the director of the online surveillance system FluTracking, he has deep expertise in viral spread. FluTracking .. https://info.flutracking.net/ .. receives weekly reports from 40,000 participants who monitor influenza across Australia and New Zealand.
Dalton is all for pre-emptive action but only when there has been considered decision-making around its costs and benefits.
“Let’s start where there is local transmission and try and contain it – then we can be surgical in our decision making about other things, such as schools," he says.
Early in this outbreak, Dalton published an article laying out the principles of pre-emption and advising on self-protection. Then an unexpected thing happened: the National Institutes of Health in the United States saw the article and decided to use it as the basis of its guidelines for the American people.
On Tuesday, US Vice-President Mike Pence used a reformatted copy of it during a White House briefing on the virus. The advice covers how to minimise the risk of contracting the disease in the home, the workplace and while travelling.
US Vice-President Mike Pence refers to an article by University of Newcastle academic Craig Dalton in a White House briefing. Bloomberg
While this is a vote of confidence in Dalton’s advice, there is always a risk in taking the middle way. It is that the tipping point might be missed and viral spread – which is exponential – may take off.
On Monday, Denmark – which has exemplary heathcare and has been vigilant about this virus – had 55 cases. By Wednesday it had 514. The shocked government ordered all kindergartens, schools and universities to close for a fortnight and public servants in non-essential roles to stay home.
But then, Denmark is a small country with a population of 5.6 million. It's nothing like sprawling NSW with its population of 7.5 million.
Australia's next move
Australia has to carve its own path through this pandemic. The important differences in the way it and China manage health and civil liberties mean Beijing’s models are not cookie cutters.
And there is no point looking to Iran or Italy, because their scenarios are different. So is the one in the US where Donald Trump wasted weeks minimising the outbreak instead of taking control. That left local authorities, schools, universities, businesses and nursing homes to take matters into their own hands. Now multiple US states have declared a state of emergency to deal with the coronavirus.
Closing down a country is an enormous step and requires serious risk analysis.
Lifting the restrictions afterwards requires risk analysis too, says associate professor Adam Kamradt-Scott, an expert in the spread and control of infectious diseases at the University of Sydney's Centre for International Security Studies.
GRAPH
“Australia’s pandemic plans are designed to be proportionate to the response, and when the situation and the evidence warrant additional measures, that is when the government should implement them.”
As Australia does not have sustained community transmission yet, he says shutting down for two weeks probably would do great economic harm and the exercise may well have to be repeated, if sustained transmission occurred, a month or two later.
Currently, diligent identification of cases, contact tracing and isolation are appropriate measures, given the small number of Australian cases.
"But the government will act, and act quickly, when there is evidence of wide transmission. That’s when we will see shutdowns of affected areas," he says.
Professor Raina MacIntyre, head of the Biosecurity Unit at Sydney Kirby Institute, thinks a complete close is unnecessary but if there are to be selective closures, the government should act decisively.
“There is no point dithering. The only way it will work is to act early – and it is still early in Australia,” she says.
“And we should act creatively, to minimise the impact. With schools, for example, we could join the closures to school holidays. Technology could be used to provide online classes at home.
"In evolving situations like this, we have to be able to think on our feet and change advice as information comes in." License article
Jill Margo writes about medicine and health from the Sydney office. Jill has won multiple prizes including two Walkley Awards and is an adjunct associate professor of University of NSW, Sydney. Connect with Jill on Twitter. Email Jill at jmargo@afr.com.au
$1,100/ftnt for 1.7 million 'looking for work' Australians.
"Qantas, Jetstar to stand down 20,000 workers due to coronavirus, Alan Joyce says national carrier's future is at stake"
Stimulus round two: An extra $750 for social security
By Harrison Astbury on March 22,2020
Photo by Aditya Joshi on Unsplash
The Government on 22 March announced a second stimulus package, including $550 extra per fortnight for welfare recipients in a package worth $66 billion.
This $550 per fortnight is in addition to regular welfare payments, and applies to:
The payments will last for six months, and asset tests and waiting times for the JobSeeker allowance will also be waived.
Payments will also be available to sole traders and casual workers affected by lay-offs spurred on by coronavirus (COVID-19).
The stimulus package also includes an extra $750 one-time payment for people on social security and veteran benefits, on top of the first $750 handed out in the first round of stimulus.
Payments will be automatically paid to an estimated five million people on 13 July.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the extra $550 essentially doubles welfare payments.
“(The new payment) will be available to sole traders, casual workers who meet the income test,” he said.
“This means, anyone eligible for the maximum jobseeker payment will now receive more than $1100 a fortnight, effectively doubling the jobseeker allowance.”
* For pensioners, deeming rates will also be cut by a further 0.25%.
* People will also be able to access $10,000 from their superannuation in 2019-20, and 2020-21, which will not be taxed, and withdrawals will not affect Centrelink or veterans' payments.
* For small business, the government will guarantee loans up to $250,000, and they will also receive cash payments up to $100,000.
The news comes after the Government announced its first $17.6 billion stimulus package just last week.
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