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littlefish

03/14/20 5:10 PM

#69447 RE: bbotcs #69446

Can’t really win with this other than to look at whom got it right for future pandemics.

There will always be one side saying people way over react and another saying you’re killing people if you keep going about normally with just minor prevention.

Thing is, the ‘over reacting’ side will almost always be ‘right’ unless the killing people side stands back and lets the virus loose to just see how many people die. Since we have not done that historically, the ‘over react’ side can claim being right and the ‘killing people’ can say only because we saved ur azz.

For academic purposes we are lucky to get a fairly definitive answer to this one on COVID-19. South Korea over reacted, tracking people diagnosed, testing hordes of people early, etc... Italy let it go for a little bit thinking it may not be so bad before joining the ‘over react’ crowd.

Italy, where stuff like kissing on cheeks and such is more common doesn’t help. They waited before doing much compared to Korea.. Maybe 1,400 dead and climbing isn’t the end of the world for Italy and less than 100 for South Korea, but it demonstrates the percentage impacts of the two different philosophies in this one specific case. If the virus isn’t deadly then it isn’t a big deal but we knew full well from China that it IS deadly, especially to certain at risk populations.

Sometimes we get lucky like the swine flu where only 0.02% of people die, a tiny fraction compared to the common flu and the ‘over reacting’ crowd get it right. Other times, the other way. Of course simple logic SHOULD dictate being aggressive and very cautious at the start, otherwise we end up like this or worse.

IMO only.

Also luckily, we are way more medically advanced so when we catch this stuff early our treatment of symptoms can lead to much better overall outcomes for those inflicted.

PS- my workplace is stuffed with the everyone is over react crowd. We went from 0 confirmed to 6 in the plant. It’ll get worse.
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littlefish

03/14/20 6:31 PM

#69449 RE: bbotcs #69446

One thing we can say now that Trump is taking a much much harder line stand, the ‘you’re overreacting’ crowd will claim victory saying it’s a bunch of hysteria as things cool down and the ‘you’re gonna kill people’ crowd will say it’s only because they took harder measures when things started to escalate.

Chicken and the egg, which came first...

I just hope with the spread here locally I (family) can avoid it the next few weeks with a medically fragile individual in the house.

Take care all.