“ For all those reasons, I trust their estimate is more accurate than something you or I could derive”
Seismologists have studied earthquakes for decades...they have billions of dollars worth of monitoring equipment placed all over the planet...they have a trillion pieces of information related to earthquakes...tens of billions of dollars have been spent on it...
They still can’t tell you when or where one will happen...or the severity...
And you know what?...my guess is just as good as theirs...
Lol
You can’t make projections about something you’ve never seen before or know anything about...not until you have become familiar with it and developed some kind of knowledge of it...or have some data to compare it too...