gfp: You have to understand what is happening behind the scenes. The developed world is buried in unpayable debts. The Central Banks and the world's governments will undertake all manner of stimulus, both monetary and fiscal. Tax cuts, helicopter money, Central Banks buying stocks to prop up markets, full monetization of all government debt. Asset prices might stay stable in nominal terms buy the value of the underlying currencies will continue to drop. Fiat currencies will weaken considerably. Commodity price will level off and begin rising rapidly, led by the precious metals. If you own mining stocks and those companies have proven reserves it is like money in the ground. Unless governments around the world begin to nationalize all the mines then those companies will continue to operate even if the stock doesn't trade for a time. Bob Rinear thinks thinks our government could impose a trading moratorium at some point, or at least ban short selling for a period of time. Whatever they do it is only going to make the crisis worse which therefore continues to make gold and silver all that more valuable. Say gold is $2000 when they halt trading in all stocks. Say GDXJ is $50 when that happens. They can halt trading for 3 months for example. The underlying fundamentals don't change by suspending trading. The value and price of gold and silver continue to rise. Governments and Central Banks continue to debase their currency. In fact the rate of increase in the price of gold and silver will actually accelerate in this scenario. After the 3 month trading moratorium Gold might be at $3000 and GDXJ might reopen at $100. I can't envision a scenario except a large planet-destroying meteor aimed directly at earth that will end up depressing the price of gold and silver in the intermediate and long term. We are too far gone into over indebtedness. The Central Banks will try everything in their power to stay viable. If a total worldwide collapse occurs that would be a great incentive for the citizens of all the developed nations to eliminate or curtail the power of the Central Banks. So they will do everything they can to keep that from happening.bot the Bank of Japan and The Swiss National Banks are already well down the path of purchasing and owning equities. Europe and the US will eventually be forced to do the same. Look for tax cuts and helicopter money from the Fed or the Government, even though they would lead to even more debt or currency debasement. As I said in my earlier post...in what other industry do you see the price of the end product rising while the costs to produce that product are falling? With the miners once the ore field is discovered and the capital has been raised and spent to put in the infrastructure...the biggest cost of production are diesel fuel for the heavy equipment and the manpower labor costs. Oil may dip below $40 a barrel this week. Adjusted for inflation these might be the lowest oil pries in history. So mining costs are dropping. And if the miners can produce gold at a cost of $1000 an ounce then a rise in the price of gold form $1500 to $2000 results in a 100% increase in profits. A rise to $3000 an ounce doubles the profits again. Sure the miners have risk. But at this stage in the collapse cycle the real risk would be geopolitical...governments nationalizing mines. I have a lot of eggs in my mining basket. It is a risk I am willing to take. If government ever get so desperate that they nationailze private industries then the end is near anyway. Chaos, pandemonium, riots, strife, starvation and warfare follow. At that point we finish what food we have left and have a bullet for desert.
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