Replies to post #228915 on Biotech Values

[vinmantoo]

I'm not saying this can't turn out to be terrible in the long run, but if China is truly in a recovery process as they claim I don't see it being as bad as predicted.

First of all, I don't trust the Chinese data. Second, if those numbers are true, they were able to dramatically slow down the infections spreading by shutting down all movement and commerce within a major city (Wuhan) and the surrounding area. It was but it was relatively localized but was possible. There are over 8 million people in Wuhan alone, so it would be like shutting down New York City. That has devastated the economy in that region. In the US there are cases in some 15 states and in large population centers, NY, Boston, Seattle, SF, LA, San Antonio, Tempe, Sarasota, near Atlanta. Well, you get the picture. The first case in Berkeley was just confirmed today, so I guess I should prepare. The point is we can't shutdown all these areas.

I sure as hell don't want the COVID-19 virus to spread, but we have to face the possibility it will, or is already spreading.

Weren't we all supposed to die from Ebola anyways.

No! Ebola is extremely deadly but it is hard to spread. It requires contact with bodily fluids for those infected. Such patients haemorrhage profusely so you can indeed catch it form close contact, especially healthcare workers treating them. tRUMP attacked Obama mercilessly when, on the advice of the CDC, he allowed a few infected healthcare workers to enter the US under stick protocols. They didn't infect anyone else and most recovered due to the excellent care they got here.

[iwfal]

I'm not saying this can't turn out to be terrible in the long run, but if China is truly in a recovery process as they claim I don't see it being as bad as predicted.

Missing many important points here:

A) China traded huge economic impacts for “social distancing” to slow disease. Not clear how much they can gas the economy without letting virus back out again.

B) the death rate, and the hospitalization rate, are both about 10x the flu. And probably 20x to 30x in places where the sick overwhelm medical system because about 5-20% (depending on age/sex/etc) require oxygen or more. So we cannot just let it run - because it will kill more ppl (and probably create other problems - eg infrastructure)

C) virus is novel to humans. So more ppl are susceptible.