Replies to post #314 on Justa's Dive Bar

[chainik]

Commercials are shorter NDX by 150 K mini contracts, which IMO increases the chances of a move down this year (ideally, next week).

[chainik]

<We are getting quite oversold on the Xau daily>

Bullish as I am on gold and miners long-term, it's hard to be very optimistic on a shorter time scale (a few months/a year).
HUI basically stayed in 270-360 range in 2006. It is close to the top of this range now.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&st=2006-01-01&en=2006-12-31&id=p5455958002...

There is a lot of pessimism in the media on USD; in contrast, COT is bullish for USD and very bearish for Euro.

IMO the recent drop in USD (and gold rally) were in anticipation of rate cuts. IMO these moves were premature. According to Fed Funds Futures, the probability of a rate cut is only 30% for March meeting and about 50% for May meeting;
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1525,00.html

same for the options on these futures
http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/policy/fedfunds/index.cfm

I think we will see lower HUI in the future (below 300?). I'll start buying at HUI 330.