a massive global recession is inevitable
That may be true. I just don't know what will trigger the selling of bonds by foreign banks.
There's an article floating around recently on the web about an interview with someone (a fed gov I think). He used the old expression "If you borrow a lot of money from a bank, and you can't pay it back, the bank has got a problem" in reference to Japan. I'm sure Japan is uneasy about the current situation. But not buying US treasuries (and there's a ton for sale every month now with our growing deficit right?), or worse, sell them, can't be something they just 'do'. Otherwise the market would crash I would think. So how do they unload them? I don't know.
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