Replies to post #241946 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[couldbebetter]

Good questions. If the trial comes down to the Judge's verdict. A
negative verdict would be met with an immediate appeal by AMRN and I
would expect the share price to touch $12 then rebound to $15.
A positive verdict would move AMRN up to $26 then down to $24.

What is Europe worth? There is no generic threat for 11 years.
Epanova is dead. Perhaps the company would accept a takeover offer
as GIA would be unlikely. My opinion is that Europe is worth more than
the US market, even if the US market is not lost to generics. In
all honesty, in a buyout, a believe the value of Europe would be
worth around $27 billion or $65 a share. That's Crazy Talk! Right?

Assuming Europe produces a total of only 3 million patients on Vascepa,
(a more accurate number might be a multiple of that) at $2000 a patient
that would be $6 billion. $6 billion X 4.5 = $27 billion.

Still look crazy?

[sts66]

IMO if AMRN loses in court the pps absolutely craters - I could see it going from $20 to $5, would be surprised if that didn't happen - the market doesn't care about the EU potential, sales there are 1.5-2 yrs away if the normal EMA timeline for approval is followed, so investors will only care about the impact on US sales, which would be devastating for AMRN. Part of that drastic drop is do to stop losses snowballing, driving the price down further and further - that happens after the initial panic selling, although if the decision comes out after the market is closed the stock may gap down so far at the next day's open it would skip right over a bunch of stops, but as soon as investors with stops see what's happening to the pps they'll panic and use market orders to get whatever they can salvage. I know there a a bunch of people on this board who have lots of shares with a low cost basis so they could hold out hoping for the decision to be overturned on appeal, but they're very much in the minority - most retailers have a much higher basis and will be quick to bail.

IMO AMRN winning the decision probably won't provide much of a pop - most observers not on this MB are predicting a relatively easy win for AMRN, so maybe it goes up a few bucks, rise will be dampened by the inevitable announcement on the same day that the generics plan to appeal the decision, so the patent overhang doesn't go away and BO fever doesn't occur. We really need AMRN to settle or a BO probably will never happen - by the time the appeals are finished there won't be enough time left for BP to make much money before Teva comes to market.

Value of EU market is hard to figure out - a larger patient population but those socialized healthcare systems will not pay what AMRN is charging in the US, price may have to be discounted by 25%-50%, which negates the bigger population and makes EU sales some fraction of US sales. You also can't jack up prices when patent protection/exclusivity is coming to an end like BP's routinely do in the US, another reason why EU market isn't as valuable.

All in all the downside of an AMRN court loss way outweighs the upside of a win - but a settlement could easily shoot us to $25 or more because a BO comes back into play and speculators will pile back in - might even see a short squeeze, but real squeezes are relatively rare.