Replies to post #241954 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[tbone997]

Sounds good CBB. The valuation makes sense...so when you layer in the US value (assuming the generic case is in AMRN favor), then we are talking 40-50B?

[Optionsrbest4u]

Good questions...

" If the trial comes down to the Judge's verdict. A
negative verdict would be met with an immediate appeal by AMRN and I
would expect the share price to touch $12 then rebound to $15.
A positive verdict would move AMRN up to $26 then down to $24"

Appreciate response...very similar to my expectations, though I wouldn't be surprised to see the initial panic abetted by the shorts to actually take the s/p down to $10ish briefly before recovering sig. to that ~ $15 area.

We already know Vascepa is relatively cheap (cost to benefit) at around $1500-$1600 monthly - though say avg. 6% annual price increases will lift that cost in no time; so kind of doubt Vascepa goes for ~ $2,000 month in Europe, but even knocking 25% off your BO target price will still make me one ecstatic camper. And there is still the distinct possibility that EVAPORATE comes in positive (or AMRN immediately plans a similar trial but with more appropriate endpoints...thus eventually scoring the atherosclerosis reduction indication as well); so assuming that, I can see your figure for sure.