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Replies to post #190 on Portola Phramaceuticals (PTLA)
On the conference call, management did not do a good job of explaining either the return issue or the decrease in utilization in tier one accounts. They seemed to have put the call together hastily and perhaps they are still trying to figure out what went on in the fourth quarter. At this point in time, I don’t feel that I have a good sense of the 4Q issues and how they can be addressed and I don’t know if the impact is just a one quarter phenomenon or has implications for a meaningful part of 2020. There have been continual concerns among analysts that Andexxa sales in 2019 were importantly influenced by inventory building and not actual demand. The 4Q results support this hypothesis.
I think that many investors will take a wait and see attitude on Portola until they can gain a better understanding of the 4Q issues and/or upcoming quarterly results give a meaningful indication that Andexxa sales are on track for a major increase in 2020. This might take one or more quarters of encouraging sales gains. My intuition is to add significantly now to my position, but before doing that I would like to hear what Portola management will have to say on a conference call scheduled for 10:00 AM on Tuesday January 14, 2020. I would hope for a clearer explanation of what went on in the 4Q.
