Admittedly it is rather arbitrary but it does stem from the prior discussions of others assuming buy-out happening post MK approval, due to people referring to age of the C level management and the board of directors that will want to 'cash-out' asap.
I submit that this is not likely as none of them are really short on cash, and for a decent understanding of MK's potential market availability and market penetration if good results, then we should be relatively clear on this by 3 years post MK approval. At which point CVM would be at about 60% at least of peak price based on the H&N cancer indication alone, and the price would be stratospherically higher than just after MK approval. Thus would make sense for the C level and Board to cash-out at least 3 years after MK approval I would think.
So rather arbitrary, but makes more sense to me than immediate cash-out.
And if the Phase III results are poor, then the value of the company essential goes to nothing for the foreseeable future.
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