Replies to post #227684 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

AMRN

Given this fact situation, sales WILL increase, likely to billions as most people on statins take Vascepa too.

While I agree sales will increase, I doubt it will get anywhere close to “most” patients taking statins. Almost certainly true statins have fewer side effects than Vascepa (albeit ones that are less noticeable to patients), plus statins are approved for the full spectrum of primary patients.

(The argument in favor of Vascepa taking large share is that ppl much prefer to take something “natural” for treatment of asymptomatic patients - but I doubt that effect is strong enough to overcome the real bleeding risks and the lack of a full primary care label)

[miljenko]

Jim, for a moment let put aside everything except Vascepa sale numbers projection and relative to AMRN market value.

Due to higher COGS and M&A expense (maybe this will change as # increase, but it is not given), I can not put more than 3.5X in market value for sale#. So, AMRN is @ $~10B MC, which means Vascepa @ WW sale of $~2.85B. Well, one can argue for 5X sale and project sale to $5B, which give you $25B in MC.

So, from the investment perspective you are talking for (max) 2.5X return, with risk that IP fail and sale projection disappoint, which will effect AMRN MC downside to $~1.5-2.0B (in rose perspective), or even much worse in *black perspective* (<$1B)! Which give you >5X lost risk!

Normally, investment position is one thing and trading position is another!

Good luck to all AMRN long and those who want to profit on shorter holding time trade.