Replies to post #227657 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: AMRN sales outlook

There is no reason why should Rx further go up, as they did in last few months.

AMRN is guiding to 2020 sales of $650-700M:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amarin-receives-fda-approval-vascepa-214907263.html

If we deduct AMRN’s Jan-Sep 2019 nine-month sales of $286.5M from the new full-year 2019 guidance of $410-425M, the implicit sales guidance for 4Q19 is $123.5-138.5M. The midpoint of this 4Q19 range is $131M, which annualizes to $524M.

Thus, the midpoint of AMRN’s 2020 guidance, $675M, represents a 29% increase from the 4Q19 run rate.

[Whalatane]

M read the ICER report on Vascepa. Health providers will SAVE $ putting these patients on Vascepa

The health care costs of those on this label averages $5k a yr . Vascepa cost to provider is $1,600’roughly a yr

Follow up studies by Dr Bhatt show NNT dropping into single digits

Vascepa scripts will explode IMHO ( if marketed aggressively ) as it’s seen as “ natural “

Something wrong with mgt if they don’t get this up to $1B in annual sales by end of 2020
JMO
Kiwi
On the drug and own the stock

[Whalatane]

AMRN. Re real world data for Vascepa
Chk Sams Thursday nite posts on the AMRN board. He has access to weekly script data
60 % plus of my wife’s renal patients NOW qualify for an on label script
Kiwi