Replies to post #38247 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>DVAX – Do you have an estimate of annual sells…3 to 5 years down the road?<

I assume you are referring to Heplisav, specifically. GSK and MRK together currently sell about $700M annually for their HBV vaccines. A better product should expand the market a little, but probably not a lot because vaccination in the “developed” world is already standard for children and is increasingly common for teens:

http://www.cdc.gov/nip/recs/child-schedule-color-print.pdf

If Heplisav is targeted to the “difficult to treat” niche market of older adults and dialysis/pre-dialysis patients, then annual sales will probably be less than $200M. However, if DVAX can persuade GSK or MRK to make Heplisav the flagship product for all HBV vaccinations, then sales could be three times that much. JMHO, FWIW