I think the "event risk" goes both ways -
We've seen plenty of times where the bottom
has dropped out a buck on the SPY,
instead of a spike, similar to what just occurred.
And I think being long here is also playing
Russian roulette, with the debt loads everywhere,
the curiosity of the repo money circus, or any
other of a handful of items which could occur.
I still wait for the DB implosion, or a different
bank, or even a country, or a South China sea incident,
etc...
The valuations we're carrying are outrageous, expecially
with the true econ reports showing real problems.
And now we've seen all shorts get toasted since Friday -
We were crumpling Friday morning and the bounce came from
"faith in the Fed" and a higher estimate of a coming rate cut.
Much of the "bounce strength" came from shorts covering,
so that support is gone...
They have very few bullets left...
It will be like a 22 repeater vs. a rhino
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