Despite the weakness in M&A, I think they'll beat handily. It's hard to lose in the bond market when the cost of funds is 1%, long rates are 4% plus, and you have that levered about 20x. The ultimate question of whether such a steep curve is justifiable won't be answered until late in the 4th, or perhaps in to 1st half 2004. I know few other than FR on this thread care, but if this curve flattens significantly without a pickup in the economy- look the hell out! But in the meantime, the financials will tell you all you need to know.
Still calling for a deep and scary down in the next 2-3 weeks, then a nice rally into year end.
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