Lightning, all things being equal, incumbents with good economies win -- but all is not equal
60% of the population is very, very angry at a President whose election strategy is to make them MORE angry as he makes his own base angry
2018 election was lost by REPUBLICAN votes switching -- white collar, suburban and women votes are leaving in droves. The actions that drove them away only get worse... More suburban house seats will go to the Dems, the popular vote will elect a Dem President
There is a LONG way to go before the election, but the President shows an amazing ability to undercut the economic sucess